Natural gas price slides below $3.90 as momentum cools after failed breakout
Natural gas retraces after topping $4.13 as sellers regain control below $3.95 resistance
Natural gas futures fell to around $3.87 in the latest session, pulling back after an impulsive rally that briefly pushed prices above $4.13. The reversal followed a rejection from a long-standing supply zone between $4.10 and $4.20, where sellers emerged strongly.
Key highlights
- Natural gas futures fell to $3.87 after rejecting resistance near the $4.13 zone.
- Momentum indicators like MACD and RSI point to rising bearish pressure on lower timeframes.
- Key support sits at $3.73; a breakdown could open the path toward $3.65 and $3.50 in the short term.
The pullback has returned prices toward a critical demand zone near $3.78–$3.73, a level that served as the base for the previous breakout.
Natural gas price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
The short-term outlook has shifted as momentum fades. Price is currently struggling to hold above the 50 EMA on the 4-hour chart ($3.83) while testing the neckline of the prior breakout structure. Technical indicators including the Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands show signs of a weakening uptrend. Price has dropped toward the Tenkan and Kijun levels at $3.87 and $3.95, respectively, while the Chikou Span now intersects the price line, indicating reduced bullish momentum.
Bearish momentum builds as indicators align lower
Momentum readings confirm the bearish pressure. The RSI (14) has slipped to 43.02, MACD has turned negative, and the Chande Momentum Oscillator remains deep in red territory at -68.35. These indicators reflect increasing downside risk as natural gas prices struggle to reclaim the $3.95 resistance zone.
On the smart money (SMC) front, a clear change of character (CHoCH) followed by a break of structure (BOS) has formed, validating the corrective nature of the current phase. Unless bulls regain control above $3.95, natural gas remains at risk of a deeper slide toward $3.65 and $3.50—levels aligned with unmitigated demand blocks and previous fair value gaps. A breakdown below $3.73 would confirm the bearish shift on both 4-hour and daily structures.
What to watch next
If natural gas holds the $3.73–$3.83 support band, a bullish reversal targeting $4.00–$4.05 may materialize. However, failure to defend this zone opens the door to extended losses. Short-term sentiment remains bearish, and only a clean break above $3.95 would neutralize the pressure.
Previously discussed analysis highlighted the bullish momentum emerging from the $3.60–$3.70 range. While that move did extend toward $4.13 as projected, the current retracement reaffirms the importance of EMA clusters and fair value zones as turning points in natural gas’s technical structure.
