Polish zloty gains 2.5% as central bank intervenes to stem currency slide
Polish zloty rebounds 2.5% after NBP currency intervention
As of June 24, 2025, the Polish zloty (PLN) is trading at 3.68 against the US dollar, marking a 2.5% appreciation over the past 24 hours.
The sharp rebound follows the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) intervention in the foreign exchange market to counter recent depreciation pressures and stabilize financial conditions.
Macro backdrop
Poland’s economy continues to face persistent inflationary headwinds and heightened global uncertainty. The NBP’s currency intervention signals its commitment to price stability and market confidence amid these challenges.
Recent macroeconomic data point to inflation remaining above the central bank’s target, while GDP growth has moderated. Industrial output shows signs of weakness, and the labor market remains stable, albeit with rising wage pressures.
On the international front, cautious sentiment prevails following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and policy uncertainty from the European Central Bank. The EUR/USD exchange rate has shown limited movement, but geopolitical risks—particularly in the Middle East—are fueling volatility across emerging markets.
USD/PLN chart. Source: TradingView
Analyst commentary and regional sentiment
UBS analysts revised their USD/PLN forecast to 3.66 in Q3 2025, down from 3.58 previously, reflecting a more cautious near-term view. The bank emphasized that while EU fund inflows and strong German fiscal spending support the zloty’s outlook, trade tensions and domestic political headwinds could temper gains.
In the broader Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, currencies remain sensitive to shifts in global risk appetite, with the zloty now outperforming peers such as the Hungarian forint and Czech koruna following NBP’s intervention.
Technical analysis
The USD/PLN pair has established support at 3.68, with immediate resistance near 3.75. The pair is trading below its 50-hour moving average, signaling a potential continuation of zloty strength in the near term. The 200-hour moving average remains higher, suggesting that long-term trends still require confirmation.
RSI indicators show neutral momentum, while the recent bounce suggests a possible breakout if the currency consolidates above the 3.68 support.
Outlook and scenarios
Base scenario:
The zloty may continue its strengthening trend toward 3.60 in the coming sessions, supported by NBP’s active stance and stable capital flows. Market participants will closely watch upcoming Polish inflation prints, PMI data, and ECB communications.
Alternative scenario:
A break below 3.68 could trigger a correction toward the 3.75 resistance zone, especially if global risk aversion intensifies or if the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive policy tone.
Key levels to watch: • Support: 3.68 / 3.60 • Resistance: 3.75 / 3.80
Investors will remain attentive to macro data, central bank decisions, and geopolitical developments shaping the zloty’s trajectory in the coming days.
Recently we wrote, that Microsoft is committing an additional $700 million to enhance Poland’s cybersecurity infrastructure in collaboration with the Polish armed forces.
