Silver price climbs ahead of key U.S. data and potential July breakout
Silver gains 1% in July start
Silver price has entered July on a positive note after ending June in tight consolidation. Monday, which was the final trading day of the month, saw silver trading within a narrow range, supported by the week’s opening price at $35.93 and the 100 EMA on the 4-hour chart. On the upside, resistance came from the 20 and 50 EMA near $36.20. This price compression suggested indecision in the market, but rising volume hinted at an imminent breakout.
• Silver starts July strong and records a 1% daily gain in the European session
• Volume growth supports breakout despite broader three-week consolidation
• Upcoming U.S. data releases may decide if silver clears $36.80 key resistance
During Tuesday’s Asian session, the sideways movement continued, but the growing trading volume since Monday proved pivotal. By the European session, silver broke out of the consolidation zone, rallying to an intraday high of $36.50 and recording a daily gain of 1%. Despite this short-term breakout, silver remains inside a broader three-week consolidation pattern, which suggests that the recent move is part of a larger build-up rather than a confirmed trend shift.
Silver price dynamics (May - July 2025). Source: TradingView
The key near-term target now sits at the previous week’s high of $36.80. This level is likely to act as a draw on liquidity, attracting short-term buyers who anticipate a push through the broader consolidation range. If Silver price approaches this area, market participants will closely monitor volume and price behavior to judge the strength of the bullish momentum.
Silver traders await U.S. data to confirm if breakout rally extends or fades
From a technical view, the broken EMA resistance around the $36.20 region now turns into near-term support. This area may offer a re-entry opportunity for bulls if price pulls back before attempting a fresh leg higher. If silver holds above this level, it would strengthen the case for a retest of $36.80, followed by a potential breakout from the longer range.
Looking ahead, silver traders are also awaiting key U.S. macroeconomic data that could influence price movement. The ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings reports are scheduled to be released. A better-than-expected ISM figure above the 48.8 forecast could support the dollar, placing downward pressure on silver. Conversely, weaker data may aid silver’s upside case by weakening the dollar and increasing demand for non-yielding assets.
In summary, silver has staged a short-term breakout from consolidation, but the broader trend is still undecided. The $36.80 level holds the key for bullish continuation, while macroeconomic data may act as the next catalyst in defining whether the current move develops into a sustained rally or fades back into range.
Fed rate cut hopes lifted silver sentiment and revived buying interest. Price bounced above $36 but failed to break past the $37.31 resistance.
