Nvidia stock slips to $153 as AI rally cools after record $3.77 trillion valuation
Geopolitical risks remain, especially regarding U.S. restrictions on chip exports to China
As of July 2, 2025, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is trading at $153.30, down 3% over the past 24 hours. Despite the dip, this level represents a critical technical juncture for the stock, which recently broke out of a 25-week consolidation pattern.
Highlights
• Nvidia stock fell 3% to $153.30 but remains in a bullish long-term trend, supported by a breakout and a pending golden cross.
• Overbought RSI levels suggest short-term consolidation or pullback.
• Long-term fundamentals remain strong, driven by dominant AI chip market share and strategic global partnerships.
From a technical perspective, Nvidia is approaching a golden cross, a pattern where the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average. This long-term bullish indicator typically precedes extended upward moves, reinforcing institutional confidence in the stock. Currently, the 50-day MA is trending steeply higher, and the crossover could occur within the next one to two trading sessions.
Momentum indicators, however, signal caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near overbought territory. While this is often a hallmark of strong upward trends, it also indicates a risk of short-term exhaustion. If the RSI continues to trend above 70, traders may begin to lock in profits, particularly given the recent 20% run over the past month.
NVDA stock price dynamics (May 2025 - July 2025). Source: TradingView
Key support lies at $150. A daily close below this level would represent a short-term breakdown and expose the stock to a further drop toward $130, the next significant support zone where the stock consolidated earlier in the year. On the upside, the $160-$165 range represents the next resistance zone, marked by heavy volume from prior sessions.
Market context: AI demand propels Nvidia to top valuation
Nvidia's market cap, now at $3.77 trillion, reflects its standing as the preeminent supplier of AI hardware and infrastructure. The company briefly overtook Microsoft as the world’s most valuable firm, underscoring investor confidence in Nvidia’s unique positioning at the center of the generative AI boom. With nearly 90% share in the AI chip market, Nvidia's H100 and forthcoming Blackwell GPUs remain critical to the global rollout of large language models, cloud AI platforms, and enterprise automation systems.
Market dynamics continue to favor Nvidia. The global AI data center market is projected to reach $2 trillion by 2028, and Nvidia's supply chains are aggressively scaling to meet this demand. Strategic partnerships, including recent deals with European AI firms and cloud infrastructure providers like CoreWeave, broaden Nvidia's revenue base beyond hyperscale customers like Microsoft, Meta, and Google.
Geopolitical risks remain, especially regarding U.S. restrictions on chip exports to China. However, Nvidia has demonstrated strong resilience by pivoting to custom chips for compliant markets and investing in localized production to meet regional regulatory frameworks. Investors also remain confident that a continuation of business-friendly trade policies under the new U.S. administration will help mitigate these headwinds.
Short-term consolidation before potential rally
Looking ahead, Nvidia may consolidate between $150 and $160 as traders digest recent gains and respond to near-term overbought signals. A decisive break above $160, supported by volume, would open the door for a move toward $175, and potentially $205 by late July if bullish momentum resumes in earnest. This would reflect renewed institutional accumulation following the golden cross confirmation.
Conversely, if the stock fails to hold the $150 level, it could drop to test the $130 area, where technical and psychological support converge. Such a correction would still align with the broader uptrend and offer a potential entry point for longer-term investors.
Nvidia is expanding beyond hardware by strengthening its software ecosystem, including the CUDA platform and AI development tools, which increases customer dependency and competitive barriers. Its vertical integration through AI partnerships and cloud services enhances pricing power and solidifies its role as a core player in the global AI infrastructure.
