Silver price awaits breakout as price compression meets FOMC uncertainty
Silver trades inside a tightening triangle pattern
Silver has entered a tightening price formation after Monday’s sharp swings set the stage for reduced volatility.
On Monday, silver surged to a three-week high at $37.22, briefly reclaiming the $37 psychological level before dropping to a three-day low at $36.15. This wide range movement created a volatile start to the week, but since then, price action has cooled significantly.
- Silver trades inside a tightening triangle pattern ahead of today’s FOMC minutes
- RSI hovers near neutral, signalling traders await breakout confirmation
- A move above $37 or below $36.28 could set the tone for July’s trend
Tuesday’s price range stayed confined within Monday’s range, reflecting a decline in momentum and volume. Today, Wednesday, July 9, this pattern of contraction has extended further. Since the Asian and European sessions, silver has traded strictly inside Tuesday’s boundaries, failing to breach the high at $36.87 or the low at $36.28. By the close of the European session, silver is trading near $36.6 after recovering from an intraday low at $36.41.
Silver price dynamics (June - July 2025). Source: TradingView
This narrowing range has shaped a symmetrical triangle, as confirmed by the neutral readings around 50 on both the one-hour and four-hour RSI charts. A triangle of this nature signals an imminent breakout, though the direction remains uncertain. A move above the triangle could lead silver to retest and possibly reclaim the $37 psychological level, followed by a push above the June high at $37.31 to reach multi-year highs. On the other hand, a break below would offset liquidity below the previous day’s low and extend the multi-week consolidation phase.
Silver eyes $37 psychological level if FOMC minutes weaken the U.S. dollar
The key driver behind the potential breakout is today’s upcoming FOMC minutes release in the North American session. These minutes provide a detailed account of the central bank’s recent meeting, offering insights into their economic assessment and future rate path. A hawkish tone would strengthen the U.S. dollar and likely pressure silver lower, encouraging a break to the downside. Conversely, a dovish message would weaken the dollar and support a bullish run for silver, particularly if technical supports from the four-hour 50 and 100 EMA zones align with buying momentum.
Market participants are now watching closely for clues from the FOMC release, as it will determine whether silver breaks free from its current price cage. Until the outcome is clear, traders continue to prepare for sharp movement, knowing that the resolution of this tight triangle pattern could define the direction for the rest of July.
Strong U.S. jobs data reduced rate cut hopes and pressured Silver prices. Silver broke its bullish channel support and found temporary relief at the 20-day EMA.
