LVMH stock climbs above €484 as investors weigh China boost against spirits drag
LVMH has strengthened its digital footprint in China through a deepened collaboration with Alibaba
As of July 9, LVMH is trading at €484.70, up 0.4% in the past 24 hours. Despite this minor intraday gain, the broader technical and fundamental picture for the French luxury conglomerate remains fragile.
Highlights
- LVMH is trading at €484.70, still below key moving averages, indicating continued bearish technical momentum.
- The company's Wines & Spirits division struggles with losses, while reputational risks from ESG issues persist.
- Short-term upside is limited unless sales improve and resistance at €495 is broken.
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (EPA: MC) continues to trade below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling an entrenched bearish trend. The 50-day moving average is currently positioned at approximately €503, while the 200-day moving average is near €528. The current market price of €484.70 puts the stock at a 3.6% discount to its 50-day trendline and a more significant 8.2% below its long-term average.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42, suggesting that while the stock is not yet oversold, bearish momentum is building. Volume data over the past two weeks has also shown a decline in buying interest, reflecting a cautious stance from institutional investors.
LVMH stock price dynamics (May 2025 - July 2025). Source: TradingView
Immediate support is identified at €475, which aligns with the mid-June lows. A confirmed close below this level could open the door to further downside, with the next major support seen in the €455–€460 range. On the upside, resistance sits at €495, with stronger resistance at €505, the level corresponding to the 50-day moving average. Until LVMH can break above these resistance levels with conviction, technical sentiment will remain neutral to bearish.
Mixed earnings, strategic missteps, and brand risk
LVMH’s Q1 2025 earnings report showed total revenue of €20.3 billion, broadly flat year-over-year, reflecting resilience amid a cooling global luxury goods market. However, deeper concerns lie beneath the topline figures. The Wines & Spirits division posted a notable contraction, resulting in a €1.5 billion cash burn across 2024, driven by overextended brand acquisition strategies and poorly timed pricing hikes under former division head Philippe Schaus. His replacement by Jean-Jacques Guinoy in February 2025 reflects internal acknowledgment of the strategic misstep.
Further exacerbating investor concerns, animal rights organization PETA published a report in April 2025 implicating LVMH in unethical sourcing practices, particularly in its exotic leather supply chains. This has the potential to impact consumer sentiment and draw additional regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the U.S. and European markets.
Meanwhile, analysts from Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas have issued cautious outlooks, highlighting potential revenue contraction in Q2 2025. Slower discretionary spending in Europe and North America, along with stagnating growth in China, continue to pressure demand for high-end apparel and accessories.
On a more optimistic note, LVMH has strengthened its digital footprint in China through a deepened collaboration with Alibaba, including livestreaming campaigns and premium placement on Tmall Luxury Pavilion. This initiative could provide some upside in the second half of 2025, particularly if macroeconomic conditions in China stabilize.
Potential retest of €460 before recovery prospects emerge
Given the weight of current technical and fundamental pressures, LVMH is unlikely to stage a sustained rally in the short term. Unless a strong positive catalyst emerges—such as an upside earnings surprise or meaningful progress on resolving ESG-related criticisms—the stock is more likely to retest support at €475, with a possible further dip toward €460.
In a best-case scenario, if the €475 level holds and LVMH can regain momentum above €495–€500 on high volume, the stock could challenge the 50-day moving average at €503. However, that path would require not just technical strength but a reversal of recent negative sentiment in the luxury goods sector.
LVMH has appointed longtime executive Michael Burke to lead its Americas operations amid rising market uncertainty. The move aims to boost regional growth and stabilize performance as consumer demand softens and volatility increases.
