Silver price breaks out above symmetrical triangle ahead of U.S. job data
Silver is up 1.2% as of July 10 European session
Silver price action has taken an interesting turn this week as traders digest fresh signals from the Federal Reserve and upcoming U.S. economic data.
On Wednesday, silver slipped despite US Treasury yields easing and the dollar weakening against major peers. This weakness intensified right after the FOMC minutes revealed that most Fed officials expect at least one rate cut this year, and a few are even open to a reduction in July if incoming data supports it.
- Silver is up 1.2% as of July 10 European session, after a symmetrical triangle breakout
- Volume decline raises doubts on breakout strength despite move above $36.80
- U.S. jobless data and Fed comments later today could decide silver’s short-term direction
Thursday’s session has delivered a different story for silver. From the start of the Asian session, price climbed steadily after finding solid support at the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern that has framed trading since the beginning of this week. By the European session, silver broke above the upper boundary of this triangle, marking a shift from consolidation to an attempted breakout.
Silver price dynamics (June - July 2025). Source: TradingView
At its highest point in today’s European session, silver traded near $36.80, reflecting a 1.2% daily gain. This move also lifted price above Wednesday’s high, offering early confirmation of bullish momentum. However, the strength of this breakout is being questioned due to declining volume, which suggests traders may be cautious or waiting for further confirmation before fully committing to new positions.
Silver rebound hinges on U.S. labor data impact on dollar and Fed policy outlook
From a macro perspective, attention turns to the latest U.S. Unemployment Claims data. The forecast stood at 236,000 compared to the previous 233,000. A lower-than-expected figure is typically supportive for the dollar, as it signals labor market strength. However, labor market trends are closely monitored by the Fed, as employment conditions shape future monetary policy decisions and impact metals through interest rate expectations.
Also, later today, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is set to speak, and market participants will watch closely for any comments that could influence expectations for upcoming rate moves. Public statements from FOMC members often serve as a guide to the Fed’s next steps, shaping sentiment across risk assets and safe havens alike.
Technically, the breakout above the symmetrical triangle suggests the potential for further upside in silver if price can hold above former resistance. Yet, the declining volume is a clear warning sign. If buying interest does not pick up, silver risks falling back into its consolidation range or even retesting support levels around the triangle base.
Silver price formed a tightening triangle pattern and hovered near key breakout levels. Traders awaited clarity from the FOMC minutes before taking fresh positions in Silver.
