LVMH stock falls 3% as Hermès widens lead with €248 billion valuation
In its most recent quarterly results, LVMH posted a 3% drop in revenue, missing analyst forecasts
As of July 11, LVMH stock is trading at €490.05, down 3% in the past 24 hours.
This latest move reflects volatility and investor hesitation after a protracted decline. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of €762.70, having shed nearly 36% of its value year-to-date.
Highlights
- LVMH stock is down 3%, trading at €490.05, and remains below key technical resistance.
- Hermès has surpassed LVMH in market value, driven by strong revenue growth and resilient demand.
- Technical and fundamental indicators suggest continued bearish momentum for LVMH in the short term.
The 50-day moving average is currently at €495.25, just above the market price, while the longer-term 200-day moving average sits at €571.45. This sustained divergence points to a firmly entrenched bearish structure. A death cross—where the 50-day average crosses below level over the past week, with selling pressure intensifying near that zone. Support is seen at €436.55, a level that held during the June lows. If that area is breached, the next downside target could be in the €410–€420 range, based on historical volume profile.
LVMH stock price dynamics (May 2025 - July 2025). Source: TradingView
Volume data further confirms bearish sentiment. Trading volumes have increased during down days, while rebounds have been marked by low participation—indicating a lack of conviction among bulls. Until there is a sustained move above €510 with strong volume, any upward moves should be viewed as short-covering rather than trend reversals.
Hermès outperforms as luxury sector shows cracks
LVMH’s weak technical posture mirrors deeper challenges in the luxury goods sector. The most striking development in recent months has been Hermès surpassing LVMH as France’s most valuable listed company. Hermès now boasts a market capitalization of nearly €248 billion, driven by strong earnings and steady demand in the ultra-high-end luxury space. By contrast, LVMH has reported a notable slowdown.
In its most recent quarterly results, LVMH posted a 3% drop in revenue, missing analyst forecasts that had expected a modest 2% increase. Sales in Asia, particularly China, were underwhelming due to a weaker-than-expected rebound in consumer spending. LVMH’s Fashion & Leather Goods segment, which includes flagship brands like Louis Vuitton and Dior, struggled to match last year’s strong comparables.
The broader backdrop is also weighing on sentiment. The global personal luxury market contracted by an estimated 2% in the first half of 2025, reflecting tightening consumer budgets amid sticky inflation and high interest rates in key markets. Meanwhile, Hermès bucked the trend by posting 15% revenue growth in constant currency terms—thanks to its exclusive brand positioning and limited distribution model.
Downward bias toward €450 unless key resistance breaks
Given the technical structure and deteriorating fundamentals, the outlook for LVMH remains bearish over the short term. Unless the stock can convincingly break above the €495–€510 resistance zone with sustained buying, the path of least resistance is downward. A rejection from current levels could send the stock back to retest support at €436.55. A failure there would open the door to deeper declines, potentially toward €410.For bullish momentum to emerge, LVMH would need a clear positive catalyst—either an earnings beat, signs of a turnaround in Asian markets, or renewed strength in key fashion brands. Without such developments, rallies are likely to be faded by institutional investors. The near-term bias remains negative, and caution is warranted for long positions. Traders may find better opportunities in relatively stronger names like Hermès or Richemont until LVMH proves it can stabilize.
LVMH has appointed Michael Burke, a seasoned executive with over 40 years at the company, to lead its Americas operations. The move is aimed at revitalizing growth and stabilizing performance amid softening demand and rising market volatility in the region.
