Nvidia stock climbs to $165 after Blackwell chip sellout fuels $4 trillion rally
Morgan Stanley has reported that Nvidia’s 2025 production of Blackwell GPUs is already sold out
As of July 11, Nvidia stock is trading at $164.92, up 0.5% in the past 24 hours.
The recent price action reflects a mild rebound after a short-term pullback from all-time highs, underscoring the ongoing tug-of-war between institutional buyers and long-term investors.
Highlights
- Nvidia stock is trading at $164.92, supported by strong technical levels and bullish momentum.
- The company’s 2025 Blackwell chip inventory is fully sold out, signaling robust AI-related demand.
- Analysts maintain bullish targets as Nvidia holds above key support, with upside potential toward $177–$200.
Nvidia (NVDA) has shown strong technical resilience in recent weeks, with the stock comfortably holding above the breakout zone near 160–165 dollars. The current price of 164.92 places the stock just below the recent intraday high of 167.86, suggesting consolidation in a narrow range after a multi-month surge. The 50-day moving average is rising steadily and currently sits around the 145–150 zone, while the 200-day moving average is still below 130, highlighting the persistence of bullish momentum.
Momentum indicators remain favorable. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 70 but not yet in overbought territory, indicating there may still be room for upside before technical exhaustion. A weekly bullish engulfing candle formed in early July adds confirmation to the uptrend, especially as it followed a clean bounce from the 150 level, which has now flipped into strong support. On the downside, traders will likely defend the 160 level, followed by stronger structural support at 150 and a critical long-term support zone at 130, aligned with the 50-week moving average and a rising trendline from early 2024.
Nvidia stock price dynamics (May 2025 - July 2025). Source: TradingView
However, there is one notable cautionary signal: trading volume has been declining even as the stock price pushes higher. This divergence often precedes reversals or corrections. Should Nvidia fail to break above the 170 level with conviction and volume, the stock could enter a sideways consolidation phase or experience a pullback toward key support areas.
Market context and news drivers
The broader context for Nvidia remains exceptionally bullish, driven by the company’s leadership in the AI semiconductor space. Nvidia recently became the first publicly traded company to reach a $4 trillion market capitalization milestone, a feat largely attributed to its dominance in the AI GPU market and massive demand for its Blackwell architecture chips. Analysts from Barclays, Bank of America, Wedbush, and Loop Capital maintain buy or strong buy ratings, with price targets ranging from 177 to over 200 dollars.
Notably, Morgan Stanley has reported that Nvidia’s 2025 production of Blackwell GPUs is already sold out, reflecting insatiable demand from hyperscalers, sovereign AI clients, and data center operators. This demand pipeline provides earnings visibility well into next year. Nvidia’s recent moves into robotics platforms like Isaac and AI agents built on its Omniverse infrastructure further deepen its strategic moat.
At the macro level, Nvidia benefits from continued investor enthusiasm for AI-related equities and the strength of mega-cap tech stocks that are driving major indices to new highs. However, geopolitical risks—especially U.S.-China tensions and export controls on high-performance chips—remain on the radar. Additionally, there is a risk of regulatory scrutiny should Nvidia’s dominance raise antitrust concerns.
NVDA price forecast and outlook
In the base case, Nvidia is expected to stabilize above the $160 level, forming a new support base before resuming its upward trajectory. A clean break above $170 would likely confirm bullish momentum and open the door for a near-term rally toward the $177–$180 range. This scenario is supported by strong institutional backing, consistent analyst upgrades, and continued AI-driven demand for Nvidia’s GPU products.
A more bullish scenario could unfold if Nvidia surpasses $175 on rising volume, supported by positive macroeconomic developments or stronger-than-expected earnings guidance. Conversely, a bearish outcome may materialize if selling pressure intensifies amid declining volume, tighter regulation, or worsening U.S.-China relations.
Nvidia’s rally is driven by both strong technicals and growing demand for its AI GPUs, with supply unable to keep pace. Easing US-China tensions have added a geopolitical boost, potentially opening new growth channels in data centers and edge computing.
