Nasdaq holds near record high as earnings and CPI keep investors cautious
Nasdaq flat near highs
The Nasdaq Composite Index ended last week on a cautious note, closing Friday with a 0.2% loss and recording a modest weekly decline of 0.07%. Despite this setback, Friday’s losses were contained by support at the 20 EMA on the 1-hour chart, located near 20,580. The price action over the last three trading days has kept the index locked in a tight range below its all-time high of 20,655 and above key support around 20,480. This lower boundary is further reinforced by the 50 EMA on the 1-hour chart, highlighting the importance of this level as a floor for price stability.
• Nasdaq slips 0.3% premarket today after closing last week flat near record highs
• Price holds above 20,480 support while traders await earnings and U.S. CPI data this week
• Tight consolidation suggests possible breakout as macro and corporate catalysts build
Prior to this recent consolidation, the Nasdaq Composite had enjoyed a steady bullish uptrend since early April. However, during the past three sessions, daily trading volume has been steadily declining, hinting at a growing reluctance among market participants to commit aggressively ahead of key catalysts.
NASDAQ price dynamics (May - July 2025). Source: TradingView
The main focus is on President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs targeting imports from the European Union and Mexico, set to begin on August 1. These trade measures have injected a layer of uncertainty into market sentiment, especially at a time when traders are bracing for a packed week of earnings releases and the crucial U.S. CPI inflation report.
Nasdaq declining volume signals caution before CPI and earnings updates
In the premarket session on Monday, July 14, the index is pointing lower, down by 0.3% as investors digest recent geopolitical and economic developments. The current technical structure sets the stage for a potential breakout from the ongoing three-day range. On one hand, the broader trend and supportive technical indicators suggest the possibility of an eventual bullish breakout. On the other hand, the looming earnings season and inflation data could keep the index trapped as investors wait for clarity before making directional bets.
If earnings reports from major banks and the CPI data deliver positive surprises, a push above 20,655 could unlock further upside potential, reinforcing the longer-term bullish trend. Alternatively, disappointing data or negative guidance could trigger a downside move, potentially breaking support at 20,480 and sparking a deeper retracement.
For now, the Nasdaq Composite stands at a critical juncture, balancing strong underlying momentum against caution driven by macroeconomic and corporate earnings uncertainties. Investors will be watching closely to determine whether this consolidation phase resolves into a fresh leg higher or a corrective move lower in the coming sessions.
Trump’s tariff move on Canada sparked investor worry and hurt global tech confidence. Nasdaq fell after hitting 20,650 and showed signs of exhaustion near the 20-day EMA.
