Tesla stock falls 1.9% as sales slide and exec exits deepen uncertainty
Recent U.S. EV delivery data from Q2 showed a 6 percent year-over-year decline across the market
As of July 16, Tesla stock is trading at $310.78, down 1.9% in the past 24 hours.
Tesla (TSLA) has pulled back from its recent highs, with the stock hitting an intraday peak of $320.75 before retreating.
Highlights
- Tesla is trading in a tight $300–$325 range, with technical indicators showing weakening momentum.
- U.S. EV sales fell in Q2, and Tesla deliveries dropped 13% year-over-year, raising concerns ahead of earnings.
- Investor sentiment remains cautious amid executive turnover and uncertainty around post-incentive demand.
The price action remains choppy and confined within a broad short-term range. Resistance is now firmly established between $320 and $325, where repeated attempts to break out have failed. Meanwhile, support is developing in the $300 to $305 zone, which has been tested but not decisively broken. The technical setup suggests consolidation rather than trend continuation.
The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is acting as a pivot point. Tesla is now trading slightly below this level, a technical red flag that could point to further weakness if support levels fail to hold. The 200-day SMA, which is sitting near $240, remains well below current prices and signals that Tesla is still technically in a longer-term uptrend. However, that trend is weakening as daily momentum indicators soften. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 45, indicating a lack of strong bullish or bearish momentum and aligning with the current sideways price structure.
Tesla stock price dynamics (May 2025 - July 2025). Source: TradingView
Volume trends are also notable. Tesla's recent down sessions have been accompanied by elevated trading volume, suggesting institutional selling pressure. In contrast, bullish sessions have occurred on lighter volume, hinting at a lack of conviction among buyers. Until this dynamic shifts or Tesla breaks above $325 on strong volume, the bias leans neutral to bearish.
Market context and news drivers
Tesla is facing mounting operational and strategic challenges. A significant development came with the departure of Troy Jones, the company’s North American vice president of sales. This exit continues a string of leadership changes in Tesla’s sales organization, compounding concerns over management continuity at a critical time.
Recent U.S. EV delivery data from Q2 showed a 6 percent year-over-year decline across the market, with Tesla posting an even sharper 13 percent drop in U.S. deliveries. While the Model Y provided a bright spot—bouncing back with 86,000 deliveries in Q2, up from 64,000 in Q1—it was not enough to offset broader weakness. Wall Street analysts have lowered their 2025 delivery estimates from 2.1 million vehicles to 1.7 million, underscoring expectations for a slower growth trajectory.
Some upside may come in the near term from the expiration of U.S. EV tax credits in September. Buyers rushing to secure incentives may lift Q3 sales artificially, providing a short-lived bump before a potential drop-off in Q4. Still, macro headwinds remain strong: global EV demand is plateauing, competition from Chinese automakers like BYD is intensifying, and CEO Elon Musk’s political controversies continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
TSLA price forecast and scenarios
With Tesla caught in a holding pattern between technical support and resistance, multiple short-term scenarios are in play. Tesla may continue to trade sideways in the $300 to $325 range through July. If earnings provide modest reassurance, shares may make another attempt to break $325 and reach $330.
Stronger-than-expected Q2 results and a positive delivery outlook could drive TSLA above $330. However, disappointing earnings, further executive turnover, or signs of a post-tax-credit sales slump could break $300 support. In this case, TSLA could quickly test $280 as the next technical floor.
Investor sentiment on Tesla is split between optimism about its AI potential and concern over governance risks. Elon Musk’s expanding role across multiple ventures has sparked calls for clearer leadership focus and stronger board oversight.
