Tesla stock gains 3.5% as Cathie Wood buys in ahead of earnings
This vote of confidence has added bullish momentum, as Wood reiterated a $2,600 per share long-term price target by 2029
As of July 17, Tesla stock is trading at $321.67, up 3.5% in the past 24 hours, extending a short-term rally ahead of its Q2 earnings report due on July 23.
The stock has reclaimed a crucial technical threshold, setting the stage for further upside.
Highlights
- Tesla is trading at $321.67, up 3.5%, after reclaiming its 200-day moving average ahead of the July 23 earnings report.
- Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has resumed buying, signaling long-term confidence despite near-term delivery declines.
- Key resistance lies at $370, with the short-term outlook ranging between $300 and $370.
Tesla’s recent move above its 200-day moving average, which currently stands near $320, is a bullish technical signal. This average has historically acted as both resistance and support, and the stock’s ability to hold this level will be critical in the coming sessions. Further upside is capped by the next resistance zone between $368 and $370, where the 50-day moving average converges with the upper boundary of Tesla’s recent trading range. A break above this level would suggest the beginning of a more sustained rally.
Support is seen first at the $300 psychological level, which corresponds to the April-May base, and then at $280 if the broader market corrects or earnings disappoint. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently trending neutral to slightly bullish, suggesting that there is still room for further upside before Tesla enters overbought territory. Volume indicators remain relatively subdued, but the recent bounce has attracted increasing institutional flows, including buying activity from ARK Invest.
Tesla stock price dynamics (May 2025 - July 2025). Source: TradingView
Tesla shares are still trading approximately 36% below their all-time high, underscoring that the current rally, while notable, is still part of a broader consolidation pattern. Volatility is likely to remain elevated as investors reposition ahead of earnings and key product updates.
Market context and drivers
The broader market backdrop for Tesla is complex. ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, resumed purchasing Tesla shares in early July after lightening exposure earlier in the year. This vote of confidence has added bullish momentum, particularly as Wood reiterated a $2,600 per share long-term price target by 2029. That forecast is driven by expectations for Tesla’s growth in autonomous vehicles, energy solutions, and its Optimus robotics platform.
Despite these bullish bets, Tesla faces near-term headwinds. Deliveries for Q2 came in at 443,956 units, down 13.5% year-over-year. Analysts at Baird and other institutions noted cautious signals on margins and volumes, particularly as demand in the U.S. appears to be softening. However, registrations in China—Tesla’s second-largest market—have shown signs of recovery, up approximately 145% week-over-week in early July.
Key macro risks include executive turnover—most recently the departure of North American head Troy Jones—and ongoing geopolitical issues involving CEO Elon Musk. Meanwhile, ARK’s flagship ETF ARKK has rallied more than 70% from its April lows, adding upward momentum to Tesla, one of its top holdings. Yet, the ETF’s current levels are well above the 50-day moving average, raising concerns of a technical correction.
TSLA price forecast and outlook
Base case scenario assumes stable earnings with limited surprises. In this view, Tesla is likely to trade within a $300 to $370 range through early August. In a bearish scenario, disappointing earnings or negative news on AI, margins, or guidance could push Tesla back to $300, with potential downside risk to $280 if broader market sentiment weakens.
A bullish surprise on Q2 earnings, coupled with strong AI and robotaxi announcements, could send Tesla toward $400 and beyond. Sustained institutional buying and bullish guidance would be required to sustain such a move.
Tesla is grappling with strategic headwinds, highlighted by the exit of North America VP Troy Jones amid ongoing leadership turnover. Despite a rebound in Model Y sales, a 13% drop in U.S. deliveries and lowered 2025 forecasts point to weakening demand and a slower growth outlook.
