Natural gas price holds above $3.50 as heatwave and triangle breakout fuel bullish momentum
Natural gas price nears $3.66 resistance as triangle breakout and summer demand bolster bulls
Natural gas futures are trading near $3.56 on Thursday, touching a two-week high, as record-breaking heat across the U.S. lifts cooling demand and reinforces technical bullish signals. Price action remains compressed within a symmetrical triangle pattern that has been forming since March, with the market now coiling near the apex and poised for a directional breakout.
Highlights
- Natural gas trades near $3.56, testing triangle resistance at $3.66 amid tight supply and heatwave demand
- Spot gas prices in New England serge 61% to $12.50 per mmBtu as U.S. temperatures stay elevated
- A close above $3.66 could open a path toward $3.93 and $4.76 while support rests at $3.40 and $3.38
Record temperatures across the Lower 48 states have pushed cooling-related gas demand higher, with spot gas prices in New England jumping 61% to $12.50 per mmBtu. Nationally, natural gas demand reached 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) but is expected to ease to 107.6 bcfd next week. Supply remains tight, with average July output at 106.9 bcfd, slightly above June’s record of 106.4 bcfd. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas volumes also rose to 15.8 bcfd, recovering from earlier maintenance-related disruptions, though still shy of April’s record 16.0 bcfd.
NG! price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
Weather forecasts indicate continued above-normal temperatures through late July, supporting high energy usage. With domestic supply-demand balances remaining tight, prices have held above the $3.50 mark, an area coinciding with clustered support from the 20/50/100 EMAs.
Technical breakout eyes $3.93 and $4.76
Natural gas recently bounced from the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle and reclaimed the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $3.53. It is now testing the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $3.66, a key confluence of horizontal resistance and the triangle’s upper bound. A sustained close above $3.66 could trigger a breakout toward $3.93 and potentially $4.76 based on the pattern’s projected move. However, failure to break higher may result in a retest of ascending support near $3.40. The 200-day EMA at $3.38 reinforces that zone as critical. A breakdown would invalidate the current formation and expose downside toward the $3.15 swing low.
In our earlier coverage, we highlighted the tightening compression within the triangle pattern and the importance of reclaiming $3.53. With natural gas now holding above that level and momentum building, a confirmed breakout above $3.66 could accelerate upside. However, caution is warranted until a daily close confirms the breakout.
