Silver price prediction: XAG/USD down as markets weigh U.S. data and Powell-Fed drama
Silver tests $38 but retreats as traders await key U.S. retail and jobs data
Silver’s price action this week has been shaped by the inflation data releases, central bank speculation, and political developments.
On Wednesday, the metal dipped to a three-day low at $37.50, marking a continuation of its recent retracement despite what should have been supportive macroeconomic data. Both the core PPI and PPI inflation readings came in better than forecast and better than previous prints, yet Silver extended its decline rather than rebounding. This contrasts sharply with Tuesday’s reaction to the softer CPI numbers, which had sparked a sharp selloff.
Highlights
-Silver trades near $37.75 today after failing to hold above $38 in early Asia
-Trump’s Powell tweet triggered a bounce, but Thursday's momentum stalled ahead of U.S. data
-RSI at 50 and falling volume suggest short-term indecision before retail and jobs numbers hit
Market sentiment shifted dramatically later on Wednesday when President Donald Trump posted a tweet revealing his draft to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump expressed frustration over Powell’s refusal to cut interest rates, a stance tied to inflation concerns and the inflationary consequences of Trump’s tariff decisions. The tweet triggered immediate market reactions. The dollar weakened sharply, and precious metals, including Silver, surged in response. This move offset much of the earlier day’s downside.
Silver price dynamic (June - July 2025). Source: Tradingview
However, Silver's Thursday performance has been more muted. In the Asian session, it briefly tested the $38.00 psychological level but failed to break higher. The European session pulled the metal back down to an intraday low at $37.75. As of the latest update, Silver is trading near that level, reflecting a 0.35% decline on the day.
Silver volume dries up, suggesting selloff lacks conviction ahead of data
Technical indicators are sending mixed signals ahead of the next round of key U.S. economic data. The 4-hour RSI sits at a neutral 50 level, reflecting a state of balance between buyers and sellers. At the same time, volume has been declining throughout the recent pullbacks, suggesting that sellers are not building aggressive positions. This lack of conviction coincides with a broader uptrend structure, implying that the recent declines may be corrective rather than the start of a deeper reversal.
This technical indecision mirrors the broader market anticipation ahead of several high-impact releases in the early North American session. Reports on core retail sales, general retail sales, unemployment claims, and the Philly Fed manufacturing index are likely to determine whether Silver resumes its upward move or extends the retracement. A strong data surprise in either direction could provide the catalyst to break Silver out of its current hesitation.
If the upcoming data releases disappoint and pressure the dollar, Silver may quickly reclaim ground and test the $38.08 and $38.38 resistance levels. On the other hand, if the data supports further dollar strength, Silver may slide toward the $37.50 support, which aligns with the 50 EMA on the 4-hour chart.
Silver dropped after strong U.S. CPI data triggered heavy selling ahead of the PPI release. Silver bounced to $38 as RSI at 55 supported a mild recovery from the $37.55 low.
