Tesla stock slips to $319 as robotaxi hopes clash with Musk political risks
Tesla recently announced it will unveil its long-awaited robotaxi vehicle on August 8
As of July 18, Tesla stock is trading at $319.41, down 0.7% over the past 24 hours.
The stock continues to fluctuate within a tight range as markets await the company’s Q2 earnings next week and digest CEO Elon Musk’s latest political announcement.
Highlights
- Tesla is trading near key technical levels, with support at $315 and resistance around $330–$365.
- Investor sentiment is split between optimism over the upcoming robotaxi reveal and concerns about Musk’s political distractions.
- Q2 earnings on July 23 will likely determine the stock’s next major move.
Tesla is currently holding just above its 200-day moving average near $317, with the 50-day moving average sitting slightly higher at $322. This compression between long-term and intermediate-term averages suggests a coiling pattern that could break either way depending on the earnings outcome. Over the past few weeks, Tesla has failed to decisively reclaim resistance at $325–$330, and bulls have been unable to push the stock above the mid-April highs near $365.
Technical sentiment from TipRanks shows that short- and medium-term moving averages (MA5 to MA100) are still flashing buy signals, while longer-term signals are mixed. The MACD is currently in negative territory (around -2.42), and RSI sits at a neutral 52.6, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Fibonacci retracement levels from Tesla’s late-2023 peak near $400 to the 2024 lows around $138 place the 61.8% resistance level at approximately $390—a key line that Tesla has tested but failed to break on multiple attempts this year.
Tesla stock price dynamics (May 2025 - July 2025). Source: TradingView
On the downside, support levels are layered at $285, $265, and down toward $225, offering potential safety nets in the event of earnings disappointment. Tesla has also printed a golden cross earlier this year, with the 50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA, typically a bullish sign. However, without a confirmed breakout above $365, this remains a lagging signal rather than a forward catalyst.
Market context and fundamental drivers
Market attention is now shifting toward Tesla’s Q2 earnings release on July 23. Analysts expect EPS to decline year-over-year due to margin pressure and softening U.S. EV demand, but the focus will be on forward guidance and progress in the robotaxi and AI roadmap. Tesla recently announced it will unveil its long-awaited robotaxi vehicle on August 8, with sources indicating that early internal testing has already begun in Austin. This has prompted analysts like Dan Ives from Wedbush to reiterate a bullish stance with a $500 price target, contingent on successful rollout and scaling.
Institutional investors like Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest have been buying into the weakness, acquiring over $96 million in Tesla shares in recent weeks. Meanwhile, domestic headwinds are mounting: the Trump administration confirmed that the $7,500 EV tax credit will expire for Tesla buyers after September due to battery sourcing rules. Additionally, new U.S. tariffs on Chinese graphite—a key EV battery input—may raise Tesla’s cost base further. Tesla’s China operations, however, showed some resilience, with weekly vehicle registrations jumping 93% recently, reversing a multi-week decline.
Elon Musk’s political ambitions have re-entered the spotlight as he announced the formation of the “America Party,” triggering a sharp intraday selloff earlier this week. The news reignited investor fears that Musk’s personal brand risks may again spill over into Tesla’s valuation and distract from core operations.
TSLA price forecast and scenarios
The base case scenario sees Tesla holding above $315 into earnings. A modest earnings beat, especially on margins or deliveries, could lift shares back toward $330. In the bearish scenario, earnings disappointment or further political fallout could see Tesla break below $315, leading to retests of $285 and $265. A full retracement toward $225 would require multiple quarters of underperformance.
In a high-conviction bullish scenario, a strong earnings beat and credible robotaxi roadmap could ignite a breakout above $390, placing Tesla on a trajectory toward retesting all-time highs near $488 by year-end.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest resumed buying Tesla shares in July, reinforcing bullish sentiment with a long-term $2,600 price target. The outlook is based on Tesla’s potential in autonomous driving, energy, and robotics.
