Nvidia stock edges higher to $173 as China AI chip access revives $8 billion market
The U.S. has reportedly granted Nvidia renewed access to export its H20 AI chips to China
As of July 18, Nvidia stock is trading at $173, up 0.95% in the past 24 hours, as renewed export access to China and strong AI chip demand continue to fuel bullish sentiment.
Highlights
- Nvidia is trading at $173 with bullish momentum supported by a positive MACD and rising volume.
- Renewed AI chip exports to China reopen an $8 billion market opportunity, fueling upside potential.
- Key resistance lies at $180, while $165 remains critical support.
Nvidia’s short-term price action remains constructive. After peaking near $175 earlier this month, the stock has traded within a tight range between $170 and $175. The 50-day moving average now sits around $165, serving as immediate support. This technical level aligns with a previous breakout zone and has held firmly during minor pullbacks. The 200-day moving average around $150 provides a deeper safety net in the event of broader tech market weakness.
Momentum indicators point to continued bullish strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the 55–60 range, indicating there’s further upside potential before overbought conditions emerge. Volume patterns have shown accumulation on green days and declining volume on down days—another signal of healthy demand. Bollinger Bands are tightening, hinting at a possible breakout move in the near term.
Nvidia stock price dynamics (May 2025 - July 2025). Source: TradingView
The MACD line remains above the signal line, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The histogram has been steadily increasing, suggesting accelerating upward pressure. A continued widening of the MACD spread would support a push toward the $180–$185 range in the coming weeks. On the volume side, recent up days have been accompanied by higher-than-average trading activity, a sign of institutional accumulation.
Market context and catalysts
The latest price surge is underpinned by favorable macro developments and company-specific momentum. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a key supplier to Nvidia, reported a 36 percent year-over-year jump in net income and lifted its full-year outlook due to massive demand for AI chips. This bolsters expectations that Nvidia’s GPU volumes and revenues will continue to grow through the second half of 2025.
Equally important, the U.S. has reportedly granted Nvidia renewed access to export its H20 AI chips to China, a move that reopens an $8 billion addressable market. The news sparked a nearly 4 percent intraday jump in Nvidia shares earlier this week and prompted bullish revisions from major research firms including Bernstein and Melius Research. Analysts argue that if Chinese demand returns to full capacity, Nvidia’s market capitalization could climb from its current $4 trillion to over $5 trillion.
However, not all voices are optimistic. A recent Financial Times podcast raised concerns that Nvidia may be overvalued, pointing to parabolic price gains that echo past market bubbles. Still, the company’s fundamentals remain sound. Nvidia is actively expanding domestic production through a proposed $500 billion initiative with TSMC and Foxconn, aiming to mitigate geopolitical risk and ensure supply chain resilience. This aligns with broader U.S. policy goals around semiconductor independence and AI leadership.
NVDA price forecast and scenarios
Based on current technical and fundamental indicators, Nvidia’s short-term outlook remains skewed to the upside. In a bullish scenario, the stock breaks above $180 and targets the $195 to $200 zone by early August. In a moderate base-case scenario, Nvidia consolidates between $165 and $180 over the next several weeks, with dips being bought and gains capped until another catalyst emerges.
In a bearish scenario, renewed U.S.–China tensions or a broader tech sell-off drive Nvidia below $165. This would likely see the stock test $150, though strong buyer interest may emerge at that level given the long-term AI growth story.
CEO Jensen Huang sold around 225,000 Nvidia shares worth $37 million on July 16 under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan. While routine, the timing amid high valuations may slightly temper bullish sentiment in the short term.
