Microsoft stock price eyes $525 breakout as AI dominance pushes valuation toward $4T
Microsoft nears $4 trillion market cap as bullish chart targets breakout above $515
Microsoft shares traded near $511.78 on Thursday, continuing their climb within a rising parallel channel structure that has guided the stock higher since late April. This price action comes as the tech giant edges closer to a historic $4 trillion market capitalization, boosted by accelerating gains in its cloud and artificial intelligence divisions.
Highlights
- Microsoft trades near $511.78, eyes breakout above $515 within rising parallel channel
- Valuation reaches $3.758T as Azure and AI investments power investor confidence
- Breakout could push stock to $525, while $502 remains key support for short-term trend
The stock remains supported by the Keltner Channel midline at $502.75, with the lower band near $494.94 serving as dynamic support. The recent consolidation just below the channel’s median appears to be a pause before potential continuation. If momentum holds, Microsoft could retest the upper boundary of the channel between $520 and $525 in the coming days.
AI and cloud continue to power growth
Microsoft’s market valuation stood at $3.758 trillion as of July 17, making it the second-largest public company after NVIDIA. The surge in investor interest has been primarily fueled by Microsoft's strong position in AI infrastructure through Azure and its deep integration with OpenAI’s models across enterprise platforms. NVIDIA continues to dominate the hardware side of the AI equation, with its valuation at $4.179 trillion, but Microsoft’s strength lies in the cloud software layer. Its early investments in Azure and strategic bets on OpenAI are paying off, enabling it to support major AI workloads globally. Microsoft has also overtaken Apple, which trails with a market cap of $3.1 trillion, amid growing concerns over Apple’s slower AI rollout.
MSFT price dynamics (Source: Tradingview)
Despite strong earnings, Microsoft has enacted sweeping job cuts to optimize operations, particularly within its gaming and Xbox divisions. While these layoffs have raised ethical questions, analysts suggest they were intended to streamline teams and refocus on high-growth areas such as AI infrastructure.
Breakout forecast points toward $525 as next target
If Microsoft breaks above $513–$515, the next upside target would be the $525 level, supported by recent momentum and continued bullish bias on the Directional Movement Index, where +DI remains above -DI. A move to $525 would reflect a 2.6 percent gain from current levels. However, a decline below $502 could weaken the structure and open downside toward $495. Until then, bulls maintain technical control.
In earlier analysis, we highlighted Microsoft’s rising parallel channel structure with dynamic Keltner band support. That trend remains intact, and with the ADX now building modestly at 16.25, the trend is maturing. Momentum toward $525 remains likely as long as the $502–$510 support cluster holds through earnings season and further institutional inflows.
