Natural gas prices struggle below pivot as European LNG imports rise
Natural gas prices fall amid rising European LNG imports
Natural gas prices remain under pressure, with the U.S. benchmark trading at $3.485/MMBtu, reflecting a 0.53% decline. Persistent bearish sentiment dominates as prices hover near the 200-day EMA at $3.481 and remain below the critical 50-day EMA at $3.891.
Key support levels include $3.555 and $3.330, while resistance at $4.051 and $4.342 poses significant hurdles for any bullish reversal. A sustained move above the $3.820 pivot point could shift the bearish outlook, but failure to hold current levels may lead to further declines.
Natural gas price dynamics (Dec 2024 - Jan 2025) Source: TradingView.
Europe’s LNG imports surge amid geopolitical shifts
In Europe, natural gas prices rose to €48 per megawatt-hour due to seasonal demand and geopolitical uncertainties. The cessation of Russian natural gas flows via Ukraine has heightened European LNG import needs. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects European LNG imports to increase by over 15% this year, adding strain to global market fundamentals. EU gas storage levels stand at 60%, a manageable yet precarious buffer for winter months.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s initial policies are also influencing the LNG market. By lifting a moratorium on new U.S. LNG export licenses and urging the EU to purchase more American energy, Trump’s measures could amplify U.S. LNG exports to Europe and Asia, tightening supply further.
Outlook: Market hinges on pivot levels and LNG demand
Natural gas markets remain caught between bearish technicals and bullish demand prospects in Europe and Asia. Traders should monitor movements around the $3.820 pivot and updates on U.S. LNG policies. Rising European LNG demand and geopolitical developments will play a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics.
In previous analysis, we highlighted the medium-term bullish momentum of natural gas, with resistance at $4.36 and traders optimistic about $4.5 and $4.7 targets if the $4.18 support level holds. The evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape remains pivotal for shaping future price movements.
