U.S. jobs miss, ECB cut speculation keep EUR/USD range-bound
U.S. jobs miss, ECB cut speculation keep EUR/USD range-bound
The EUR/USD pair has been keeping traders on their toes, hovering around the psychological 1.0800 level in recent sessions between 1.0840 resistance and 1.0760 support, with current trading just slightly higher at 1.0820.
Traders are now weighing their next moves based on economic data from both sides of the Atlantic.
In the U.S., the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed a significant drop, with openings down to 7.443 million in September, far below the expected 7.99 million. This miss highlights potential cracks in the labor market, a contrast to the rising consumer confidence index, which hit a high of 108.7 in October. The improved consumer outlook suggests that despite some softening in job openings, U.S. sentiment remains upbeat, boosting the dollar as investors consider how this could influence the Federal Reserve's stance on future rate adjustments.
EUR/USD weighs in on upcoming US and Eurozone economic data
At the same time, traders have scaled back their expectations for a large Fed rate cut, now leaning toward a more modest 25-basis-point reduction. With ADP Employment Change data and preliminary Q3 GDP numbers on the horizon, the dollar could gain more ground if these indicators show resilience, adding further pressure on EUR/USD.
Over in Europe, the money market is pricing in a nearly 50% chance of a larger, 50-basis-point cut in December. Investors are closely watching Germany’s preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) and flash Q3 GDP growth rate, as any weakness here could intensify the ECB’s dovish stance.
The broader question remains whether the ECB will continue its rate-cut cycle as expected, and to what extent this might weigh on the euro.
So, what’s next for EUR/USD? The pair is caught in a cautious ranging pattern. Any breach of 1.0840 on the upside or a dip below 1.0760 on the downside is likely to trigger an extended move.
Market expects signals from CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings reports to shake up the currency pair’s recent stand still.
