XRP likely to beat Solana in ETF race, says Nate Geraci
Crypto ETFs enter a new phase of regulatory consideration
As the crypto market continues its push toward mainstream financial integration, ETF Store President Nate Geraci predicts that a Grayscale fund offering XRP exposure could gain regulatory approval before a Solana ETF.
The Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), which holds a diversified portfolio of top digital assets including XRP and ADA, is considered by Geraci as the most likely candidate for imminent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval. The fund has seen a 14% monthly gain and an 11% year-to-date rise, currently trading at $47.44.
Key takeaways
- Nate Geraci expects XRP and Cardano to gain SEC approval before Solana ETFs.
- GDLC Fund details: The fund holds BTC (78.77%), ETH (12.40%), XRP (4.86%), SOL (3.04%), and ADA (0.93%).
- Recent SEC approvals of mixed-asset funds from Hashdex and Franklin Templeton strengthen Grayscale’s case.
- Analysts place Solana ETF approval odds at 90%, and XRP ETF at 85–87%.
XRP exposure likely to precede Solana in ETF race
The forecast, shared via a recent post on X, suggests a possible shift in momentum as altcoin ETFs inch closer to realization.
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According to Geraci, while market anticipation has been strong for a Solana ETF—especially following the SEC’s recent request for amended S-1 forms from issuers—the real front-runner may be Grayscale’s GDLC fund. Its existing exposure to XRP and other large-cap altcoins positions it advantageously amid the SEC’s evolving stance on digital asset ETFs.
The regulatory tone appears increasingly receptive. In a pivotal move, the SEC recently approved a dual-asset ETF covering Bitcoin and Ethereum, setting precedent for funds like GDLC that include XRP, ADA. This approval may serve as the framework for wider altcoin ETF offerings.
Strong odds and strategic positioning
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart peg XRP ETF approval at 85%, while prediction market Polymarket puts it slightly higher at 87%.
XRP ETF approval odds hit 87%. Source: Polymarket
Though Solana's chances are rated at 90%, Geraci believes Grayscale’s XRP fund could beat it to the market due to structural advantages and regulatory context.
As crypto ETFs enter a new phase of regulatory consideration, the race between XRP and Solana has taken center stage. With Grayscale’s GDLC already diversified and gaining momentum, XRP’s route to the ETF market may come faster than anticipated. Investors will be watching closely as the SEC’s next decisions could shape the future of altcoin adoption in traditional markets.
Recall, earlier we wrote SEC postpones decision on XRP ETFs and ETH staking.
