Nvidia stock down 25% YTD as bearish trend persists below key EMAs
Nvidia shares have fallen 43% since their peak earlier this year
Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock price continues to struggle under persistent bearish pressure following its January all-time high of $153.08. Since peaking at the start of the year, the stock has dropped 43%, reaching a low of $86.84 in April, its lowest level in 11 months. The severity of the drawdown has not only pushed Nvidia’s price below key exponential moving averages but also reinforced the prevailing downtrend.
Although, a minor bullish retracement attempted to lift the stock off its recent low. However, the recovery ran into a wall of resistance near $113.10. This level coincided with multiple bearish factors: a long-standing downward trendline, horizontal resistance at 113.10, and the downward-sloping 20 and 50-day EMAs. The confluence of these technical barriers prompted another leg lower in price.
NVDA stock price dynamics (May 2024 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
Following rejection at $113.10, the decline was temporarily cushioned by the $100.90 support. But the momentum appears tilted further to the downside. As of the pre-open on Monday, April 21, Nvidia is priced around $98.00, just below the key support zone, increasing the likelihood of a breach through $100.90 in the coming sessions.
Nvidia stock daily and 4-hour RSI suggest more room for sellers
Technical indicators further reflect the bearish environment. Both the daily and 4-hour RSI are hovering around 40, indicating continued downside bias without having entered oversold territory. This suggests there may still be room for sellers to press further before potential buyers show interest.
On a performance basis, Nvidia is now down 25% year-to-date, while losses for April alone stand at -6.55%. Given the persistent rejection at resistance and the technical breakdowns, Nvidia appears vulnerable to further losses unless buyers can reclaim ground above the $100.90 level and challenge the $113 resistance again. Until then, the downtrend remains the dominant narrative.
Nvidia broke below key support at $96 after U.S. export restrictions halted AI chip sales to China. Bearish momentum stayed intact as earnings outlook dimmed by a $5.5B charge.
