Nvidia stock slips to $124 as chip export curbs and technical breakdown weigh on outlook

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Dmytro Kharkov

21.04.2025

Nvidia stock slips to $124 as chip export curbs and technical breakdown weigh on outlook — Recent U.S. government export restrictions have halted sales of Nvidia’s high-end AI chips

As of April 21, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock is trading near $124.37, reflecting persistent downward pressure as it struggles to maintain key technical levels.

A significant concern for traders is the recent formation of a “death cross” — a bearish chart pattern that occurs when the 50-day moving average ($127.39) crosses below the 200-day moving average ($127.73). This signal, often interpreted as a long-term trend reversal to the downside, suggests that momentum has shifted firmly in favor of sellers.

Nvidia is also locked within a falling wedge pattern, typically characterized by converging trendlines that slope downward. While falling wedges can sometimes precede a bullish breakout, Nvidia's inability to generate strong buying volume or pierce the upper trendline points instead to consolidation within a broader downtrend. This pattern also reflects market indecision, often resolved in the direction of the prevailing trend — which in this case, is clearly bearish.

NVDA stock price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.

The key support zone lies at $96, a level that acted as resistance in early 2024 and now serves as a potential downside target. If breached, Nvidia could fall toward $76, which marks the April 2023 swing low and a significant inflection point. On the upside, resistance is clustered around $130, slightly above the 200-day moving average. A sustained move above this level would be necessary to negate the bearish structure and open the door for a potential move toward $150, a prior area of consolidation.

Export restrictions and investor sentiment

Beyond the chart, Nvidia is being weighed down by external headwinds, especially those stemming from U.S.-China trade dynamics. Recent U.S. government export restrictions have halted sales of Nvidia’s high-end AI chips, such as the H100 and H20, to China. As a result, Nvidia has disclosed it expects a $5.5 billion charge linked to these regulatory actions. The H20 chip — initially designed to comply with previous restrictions — is now subject to the same licensing requirements, creating more uncertainty around Nvidia’s near-term earnings.

At the same time, China has imposed new energy-efficiency regulations for data centers, further jeopardizing sales of Nvidia’s AI products. These factors are especially damaging given the company’s recent dependency on growth in the AI and data center markets. Much of Nvidia’s market premium in 2023 was built on the assumption of uninterrupted AI chip sales in Asia, and that narrative is now under threat.

Investor sentiment has shifted noticeably. Despite Nvidia’s recent expansion of AI partnerships, including a high-profile collaboration with General Motors, the stock has declined about 25% year-to-date. This suggests that institutional investors are becoming more cautious toward highly valued tech names that face geopolitical and regulatory exposure. Broader market concerns about tech sector valuations and rising interest rates also contribute to the bearish tone.

Potential decline to $96 or lower

Looking ahead, the most likely scenario is a retest of the $96 support level. Should this level break, selling pressure could intensify, triggering a decline toward $76. These levels are not only technically significant but also psychologically important, and a breach could provoke further long unwinding by large funds.

A reversal would require Nvidia to regain its 200-day moving average and close decisively above $130, ideally accompanied by strong volume and improving macro sentiment. If achieved, a moderate recovery toward $150 may become plausible, although such a rally would still face resistance from a cautious investor base.

Nvidia's recent correction is driven not only by technical factors but also by a reassessment of its growth prospects amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The company warned on April 16 that new export restrictions on its H20 AI chips could reduce fiscal Q1 2026 revenue by $5.5 billion, affecting key Chinese clients like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance.

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