Intel's comeback: Apple, Trump and the AI bet

Trump’s signal

Donald Trump did not specify which processors were involved or when production could begin. However, the Apple-Intel link itself matters for the market: Apple has relied on TSMC for years, so shifting even part of its orders to Intel would be a notable change in the supply chain, Reuters writes.

For Intel, such a contract would be especially important because the company is trying to develop chip production for external customers. If Apple does actually hand over part of its orders, Intel would get not only more factory utilization but also a strong reputational signal: one of the world’s largest electronics players would once again trust its manufacturing.

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The context here is not only market-related, but also political. Last year, the U.S. government received a 10% stake in Intel and announced plans to invest about $10 billion in building and expanding the company’s factories in the U.S. Washington is trying to reduce its dependence on Asian chipmakers, and Intel is taking on the role of one of the key national manufacturers in that strategy.

Technological edge

At the same time, Intel is trying to show that it has not only political support, but also the technological base needed for large orders. On June 16, the company announced that its new 18A-P manufacturing process had entered trial production. At this stage, Intel produces the first batches of wafers and checks whether the technology is ready to meet future customer requirements.

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18A-P is important because it may become a more suitable option for external customers, including Apple. According to Intel, the new process delivers up to 9% higher performance at the same power consumption or up to 18% lower power consumption at the same operating speed compared with 18A. The company also points to improved thermal characteristics and compatibility between 18A-P and existing developments based on 18A.

Still, Intel has yet to prove that it can produce such chips reliably at large scale. After several years of delays and manufacturing quality issues, the market will be watching not only the specifications of 18A-P, but also the successful production rate. Counterpoint Research analyst Neil Shah said that if Intel can quickly reach a level above 90%, it will be easier for the company to attract new customers.

Investors believe in Intel

The market is already pricing in a turnaround scenario for Intel. After Trump’s statement, the company’s shares rose 5.7%, while year-to-date gains have exceeded 200%. Investor interest has been supported by several factors, including Nvidia’s $5 billion investment and demand for processors used in AI infrastructure.

Recent financial results have also supported this interest. In the last quarter, Intel’s revenue rose 7% to $13.6 billion, beating Wall Street expectations by roughly 9%. The Data Center and AI segment posted a 22% increase in sales to $5.05 billion. At the same time, the operating loss of Intel’s manufacturing business narrowed to $2.4 billion, improving by $72 million compared with the previous quarter.

Against this backdrop, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Intel could still rise despite the strong rally in its shares. According to him, demand for AI services could sharply increase the need for central processors, while overloaded TSMC capacity gives Intel a chance to attract customers that need production in the U.S.

The main test ahead

For Intel, the key question now is whether the company can confirm market expectations with real orders. Trump’s statement, Apple’s interest, Nvidia’s investment and government support have already helped bring attention back to the company, but that is not enough. Intel needs to show that 18A-P is ready not only for test batches, but also for stable high-volume production.

If Intel secures a major external customer and improves its manufacturing performance, its role in the market could change noticeably. The company would be able to earn not only from its own processors, but also from making chips for other players. In that case, Intel would become not just a participant in the AI boom, but one of the key manufacturers the U.S. is betting on in the fight for control over the semiconductor supply chain.

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