U.S. Dollar Index edges above 100.0 as markets brace for PPI, retail sales and Powell speech
U.S. Dollar Index remains volatile
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) opened Thursday trading quietly after a volatile first half of the week that saw price action swing between highs and key psychological levels.
Earlier this week, the index surged to 101.5, posting a fresh high before immediately reversing course. The sharp rejection wiped out all early gains, sending the DXY back toward the 100.0 psychological region.
By Wednesday, price hit a 3-day low of 99.8, testing below the 100.0 base. However, buyers stepped in quickly, lifting the index above the day’s open and forming a bullish Doji candlestick, a sign of bullish conviction.
DXY price dynamics (April - May 2025). Source: TradingView
So far today, May 15, volatility has been limited. The DXY opened at 100.56 and has since edged down by just 0.4%, trading around 100.38 during the European session. This narrow range reflects the market’s wait-and-see stance ahead of several key data releases.
Dollar index RSI on daily and 4-hour stays neutral as volatility compresses
Technically, both the daily and 4-hour RSI are hovering near neutral, reinforcing the indecisive momentum. However, the 4-hour chart shows the weekly EMA currently offering short-term support near the 100.0 level — a level that’s proving technically and psychologically significant for traders.
Attention now turns to today’s U.S. economic releases: core Producer Price Index, core retail sales, and jobless claims. In addition, markets will closely follow Fed Chair Powell’s speech for any signals on the policy path.
Whether the DXY continues its recovery from April’s low or resumes its broader downtrend will hinge on how the data aligns with market expectations for interest rates. Strong figures could strengthen the dollar’s case for another leg up, while weaker prints may invite renewed selling pressure.
The U.S. Dollar Index gained earlier in the week on easing U.S.-China trade tensions. It later pulled back after soft April CPI raised expectations for Fed rate cuts.
