Tesla stock drops 1.8% as delivery worries grow and robotaxi hype fades
The slump in deliveries is attributed to soft demand in major international markets, including Europe and China
As of July 1, Tesla stock is trading at $317.66, down 1.8% in the past 24 hours.
The recent price action shows that Tesla is under notable selling pressure after failing to hold above the $325 level.
Highlights
- Tesla stock is trading below key moving averages, with technical indicators signaling short-term bearish momentum.
- Concerns over declining Q2 vehicle deliveries and limited scalability of its robotaxi service are weighing on investor sentiment.
- A break below $300 support could trigger a deeper selloff unless delivery or earnings surprises reverse the trend.
The 200-day moving average, situated around $350, remains above current levels, indicating that while the broader trend from late 2023 still leans bullish, momentum is clearly weakening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45, not yet in oversold territory but approaching it. This suggests that while there could be short-term technical rebounds, the underlying momentum is insufficient to support sustained upside without a strong catalyst.
Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, typically a sell signal for momentum traders. Volume levels during recent declines have been elevated compared to gains, which points to increasing conviction on the sell side. This pattern indicates a lack of institutional buying support at current levels.
TSLA stock price dynamics (April 2025 - June 2025). Source: TradingView
Tesla has critical support at $310, with the next major floor at $300. A break below $300 would likely trigger stop-loss orders and lead to a retest of $280, a level not seen since early 2024. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at $325, with stronger resistance at $340. For the bullish momentum to resume, Tesla would need to close decisively above $340 on high volume, reclaiming its 50-day average and breaking the bearish short-term structure.
Robotaxi launch fails to offset weak deliveries
Tesla’s short-term decline comes amid growing skepticism about its future vehicle sales and overhyped developments in autonomous driving. The company’s much-anticipated launch of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, initially sent shares up over 8 percent. However, the rally faded quickly as investors questioned the long-term viability and scalability of the service. Safety concerns and regulatory uncertainties continue to cloud sentiment around fully autonomous fleets.
More pressing for the company is the expected decline in Q2 vehicle deliveries, which are estimated to come in between 355,000 and 390,000 units — down as much as 20 percent year-over-year. This slump in deliveries is attributed to soft demand in major international markets, including Europe and China. In China, local competitors such as BYD and NIO are gaining market share rapidly, offering more affordable EV options with comparable technology.
Tesla's fundamentals have not kept pace with its lofty valuation, and investors are becoming increasingly impatient with CEO Elon Musk’s focus on long-term AI projects over core vehicle sales. While Musk has aggressively promoted Tesla’s AI capabilities and future robotaxi fleet, short-term revenues remain heavily reliant on car sales. This disconnect has created growing volatility in the stock, particularly around quarterly delivery numbers.
Short-term downside risk remains
Looking ahead, Tesla’s share price is vulnerable to further downside. If Q2 deliveries come in below 360,000 units, the stock is likely to break below the $310 support and test the $300 psychological level. A failure to hold that support could open the door to $280, especially if broader market sentiment turns risk-off. The technical setup supports a continuation of the downtrend unless strong bullish catalysts emerge.
To regain bullish momentum, Tesla needs to post either an upside surprise in deliveries or make tangible progress in expanding its robotaxi service beyond limited pilot areas. Investors will also look closely at the company’s Q2 earnings report later this month for guidance on margins, especially given ongoing price cuts across key markets. In the absence of such catalysts, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Tesla’s first fully autonomous delivery of a Model Y highlights progress in its robotaxi ambitions, despite lingering doubts about its FSD technology. However, investors remain cautious ahead of the July 2 Q2 delivery report, with analysts expecting a 10% year-over-year decline due to soft demand and rising competition.
