Forex Forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and other pairs

Recently released U.S. inflation statistics have undermined the belief of financial markets participants in the Fed reducing the interest rate at its June session, which had a positive impact on the U.S. dollar price dynamics, and a negative one on the prices of the euro, British pound, etc.

Even though the data published last week indicated inflation growth in the UK, which surpassed the expectations of the market participants and reduced the probability of the Bank of England cutting the interest rates in the near term, the British pound was sold once again, continuing to decline against the U.S. dollar.

Nonetheless, the GBP/USD decline could also be explained by the growth of EUR/GBP, which can hardly be called logical given the imminent reduction of interest rates by the ECB. This means that the EUR/GBP growth can still raise sell interest, which will positively impact the GBP/USD dynamics. Therefore, the bears should still exercise caution.

Economic calendar for this week:

Monday, April 22
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Producer Price Inflation MoM;
18:30 (15:30 GMT) – The Euro Area. ECB President Christine Lagarde Speech.

Tuesday, April 23
08:00 (05:00 GMT) - Singapore. Core Inflation Rate;
10:30 (07:30 GMT) - Germany. HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday, April 24
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - Australia. Inflation Rate;
11:00 (08:00 GMT) - Germany. IFO Business Climate Index;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Retail Sales;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Durable Goods Orders.

Thursday, April 25
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. GFK Consumer Confidence Index;
12:30 (09:30 GMT) – South Africa. Producer Price Inflation Index;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) – USA. GDP Growth Rate;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) – USA. Continuing Jobless Claims.

Friday, April 26
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - Australia. Producer Price Inflation Index;
06:00 (03:00 GMT) – Japan. BoJ Interest Rate Decision;
08:00 (05:00 GMT) – Singapore. Industrial Production;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) – USA. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index.

Last week, volatility in financial markets remained mostly low, and participants' attention remained focused on the inflation data for the United States and the Eurozone, as well as on comments from global central bank officials.

According to US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials, the Federal Reserve will not rush to lower interest rates unless it is confident that inflation is under control. However, the USD is still unable to develop upward momentum, and all its attempts at growth are limited.

Nonfarm Payrolls released on Friday exceeded analysts' forecasts and failed to trigger any sustainable growth for the USD. In anticipation of the US CPI and the ECB interest rate decision data release, significant changes in the EUR/USD and other major pairs with the USD are unlikely, and pressure on it may remain.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, April 8
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. Industrial Production;
18:15 (15:15 GMT) - Switzerland. SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan Speaks.

Tuesday, April 9
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - Australia. NAB Business Confidence;
08:00 (05:00 GMT) - Japan. Household Confidence;
23:30 (20:30 GMT) - USA. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock.

Wednesday, April 10
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Producer Price Index (PPI);
05:00 (02:00 GMT) – New Zealand. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:45 (13:45 GMT) - Canada. Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision;
21:00 (18:00 GMT) - USA. FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Thursday, April 11
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - PRC. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
15:15 (12:15 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB Interest Rate Decision;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Producer Price Index (PPI);
15:45 (12:45 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB Press Conference.

Friday, April 12
03:00 (00:00 GMT) - Singapore. GDP;
06:00 (03:00 GMT) - PRC. Trade Balance;
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
09:00 (06:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. GDP;
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Industrial Production;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary data.

In anticipation of Good Friday, there was a lull in the foreign exchange market, but its participants continued to monitor the statistical data release for the USA, Eurozone, and UK. They also paid increased attention to comments from central bank officials that could shed light on the prospects for interest rates.

Incoming macroeconomic indicators for the Eurozone and the United States, along with comments from central banks, suggest a fairly high probability of lowering interest rates by both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve in June. Yet experts are at a loss regarding the actions, or inaction, of the Bank of England.

Comments from Bank of England officials were relatively dovish after the Bank of England's last meeting. Still, comments from central bank official Catherine Mann last week were more hawkish as she noted markets were in anticipation of further interest rate cuts. Along with the above, the GBP managed to strengthen against the EUR, but it remained under pressure from the USD. Its decline may continue this week. At the same time, there are currently no reasons for the collapse of the GBP/USD rate, which may limit the downward potential of the pair.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, April 1
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Tuesday, April 2
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Meeting Minutes;
15:00 (12:00 GMT) - Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. Factory Orders.

Wednesday, April 3
04:45 (01:45 GMT) - PRC. Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
15:15 (12:15 GMT) - USA. ADP Employment Change;
19:10 (16:10 GMT) - USA. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks.

Thursday, April 4
09:30 (06:30 GMT) - Switzerland. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Producer Price Index (PPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Trade Balance;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, April 5
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Trade Balance;
08:00 (05:00 GMT) - Singapore. Retail Sales;
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. Factory Orders;
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Retail Sales;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Nonfarm Payrolls;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Unemployment Rate;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Average Hourly Earnings;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - Canada. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Last week, several central banks held meetings, including the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the US Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England. In general, no changes in monetary policy were expected from any of the Central Banks, so the decisions of the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank came as a surprise to financial market participants.

The Bank of Japan decided to abandon its policy of negative rates, but the JPY was unable to rise on the news, since further rate increases by the Central Bank are assessed as unlikely. The SNB, in turn, lowered the rate, and it triggered the CHF sales. Thus, the prospects for both currencies look negative and their decline may continue in the near future.

The Fed expectedly left the interest rate unchanged, while Jerome Powell expressed optimism about the prospects for the US economy and predicted three rate cuts this year. At the event, the USD was subject to a sell-off, which turned out to be short-lived and was used for its purchases. The strength of the US economy may further support the USD, but investors will continue to closely monitor incoming US data, which may affect its dynamics.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, March 25
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. New Home Sales;
17:30 (14:30 GMT) - USA. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.

Tuesday, March 26
08:00 (05:00 GMT) - Singapore. Industrial Production;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. GfK Consumer Climate;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Durable Goods Orders;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. CB Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday, March 27
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Monthly CPI Indicator;
16:00 (13:00 GMT) – South Africa. Interest Rate Decision.

Thursday, March 28
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Retail Sales;
08:00 (05:00 GMT) - Singapore. Producer Price Index (PPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Retail Sales;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. GDP;
11:55 (08:55 GMT) - Germany. Unemployment Rate;
12:30 (09:30 GMT) - South Africa. Producer Price Index (PPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. GDP.

Friday, March 29
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Retail Sales;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index;
18:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks.

Although last week's macroeconomic calendar was rich in important events, the activity of foreign exchange market participants remained quite low. The reason was they were still uncertain about the prospects for the US and Eurozone economies and the outlook for interest rates.

The US Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index exceeded forecast values, which dashed any hopes that the Fed would lower the interest rate at its March meeting. However, analysts pointed to a relatively high probability of a rate cut in June. It hurt the dynamics of the USD, but by the end of the week, it was able to gain back some of the previous losses.

The US Federal Reserve's preference to keep the interest rate unchanged for an extended period may trigger a further correction of the USD against many of its competitors. However, paired with the JPY, its dynamics may also be affected by the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, where a departure from the ultra-loose policy may trigger purchases of the JPY.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, March 18
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Producer Price Index (PPI).

Tuesday, March 19
06:00 (13:00 GMT) - Japan. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision;
06:30 (03:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Interest Rate Decision;
07:30 (04:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Press Conference;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Germany. ZEW Economic Sentiment;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Wednesday, March 20
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Producer Price Index (PPI);
11:00 (08:00 GMT) – South Africa. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
11:45 (08:45 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks;
14:00 (11:00 GMT) - South Africa. Retail Sales.

Thursday, March 21
00:45 (21:45 GMT) – New Zealand. GDP;
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Trade Balance;
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Employment Change;
11:30 (08:30 GMT) - Switzerland. Swiss National Bank (SNB) Interest Rate Decision;
15:00 (12:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, March 22
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Japan. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Retail Sales;
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Germany. IFO Business Climate Index;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Retail Sales.

Last week's macroeconomic calendar was rich in important events, including the CPI data release for Switzerland, the European Central Bank Meeting, and the US labor market data release, which should have shed light on the Fed's monetary policy.

According to released data, annualized inflation in Switzerland accelerated to 1.2%, while analysts predicted its growth to 1.3%. Thus, expectations of an earlier lowering of the interest rate by the SNB remain high, which puts pressure on the CHF. Its fall is due to the fact that the USD sales did not last long, although there is no talk of a resumption of its growth yet.

The ECB left the interest rate unchanged, indicating, at the same time, the likelihood of its reduction in June. Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded analysts' forecasts, but the EUR, despite these rather bearish factors, was able to update its weekly high and approach the level of 1.1000. However, sluggish growth in the Eurozone economy casts doubt on the EUR's ability to generate sustained growth, and the USD could be bought off by US inflation data this week.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, March 11
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Employment Change.

Tuesday, March 12
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Producer Price Index (PPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Employment Change;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Wednesday, March 13
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. GDP;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Industrial Production.

Thursday, March 14
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Producer Price Index (PPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Retail Sales.

Friday, March 15
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index;
16:15 (13:15 GMT) - USA. Industrial Production;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary data.

Last week, under fairly low volatility, was also relatively boring. Investors, based on incoming macroeconomic data, continue to calculate the likelihood of interest rate cuts by a number of global central banks. Along with continuing uncertainty, they are in no hurry to open strategic positions in the USD, EUR, JPY, etc.

The prospects for the Eurozone economy in general and Germany in particular remain not as rosy as the prospects for the US economy, but this does not prevent EUR bulls from further buying it on pullbacks downwards. This week's macroeconomic calendar is rich in events that could affect the immediate prospects for the EUR.

Investors remain more active towards the JPY. Watching for any reason the Bank of Japan would be forced to move away from its decades-long policy of negative rates, the JPY bulls have been trying to buy the JPY down to historic lows. But the central bank's often dovish comments continue to disappoint them, leaving the JPY in a vulnerable position.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, March 4
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Trade Balance;
10:30 (07:30 GMT) – Switzerland. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Tuesday, March 5
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Japan. Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI);
04:45 (01:45 GMT) - PRC. Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
08:00 (05:00 GMT) - Singapore. Retail Sales;
12:30 (09:30 GMT) – South Africa. GDP;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Producer Price Index (PPI);
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. Factory Orders.

Wednesday, March 6
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. GDP;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Trade Balance;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - South Africa. Business Confidence;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Retail Sales;
16:15 (13:15 GMT) - USA. ADP Employment Change;
17:45 (14:45 GMT) - Canada. Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Testifies;
18:30 (15:30 GMT) - Canada. BOC Press Conference.

Thursday, March 7
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Trade Balance;
06:00 (03:00 GMT) - PRC. Trade Balance;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Factory Orders;
16:15 (13:15 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB Interest Rate Decision;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Trade Balance;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Trade Balance;
16:45 (13:45 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB Press Conference;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks.

Friday, March 8
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Producer Price Index (PPI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. GDP;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Employment Change;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Nonfarm Payrolls;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Average Hourly Earnings;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Unemployment Rate.

Last week, financial market participants exuded optimism. Due to strong corporate reporting, they again showed risk appetite, continuing to buy shares. The USD, however, was under pressure from several competitors, although incoming statistics for the US further indicate the stability of the country's economy.

According to data released last week, the Eurozone economy showed a further decrease in February, while the German economy could have been in better shape. However, the EUR paired with the USD still attempts to break through to 1.0900. Its attempts so far remain unsuccessful, which may trigger sales.

The latest FOMC Meeting Minutes showed that the Fed preferred not to rush to lower interest rates. It and strong US macroeconomic indicators hardly justify optimism about the USD competitors. Thus, if this week's statistics for the US also turn out to be strong, then the USD may be repurchased, and the fall of its competitors paired with the USD may resume.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, February 26
14:00 (11:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. CBI Distributive Trades Survey;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. New Home Sales;
19:00 (16:00 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks.

Tuesday, February 27
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Japan. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. GfK German Consumer Climate;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Durable Goods Orders;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. Richmond Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday, February 28
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Monthly CPI Indicator;
04:00 (01:00 GMT) – New Zealand. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. GDP;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. GDP Price Index.

Thursday, February 29
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Industrial Production;
08:00 (05:00 GMT) - Singapore. Producer Price Index (PPI);
11:00 (08:00 GMT) - Switzerland. GDP;
12:30 (09:30 GMT) – South Africa. Producer Price Index (PPI);
16:00 (13:00 GMT) - Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Core PCE Price Index;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. GDP;
17:45 (14:45 GMT) - USA. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Friday, March 1
00:45 (21:45 GMT) – New Zealand. Building Consents;
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Japan. Unemployment Rate;
04:45 (01:45 GMT) - PRC. Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Last week, Investors' attention focused on inflation data, primarily data from the United States. On Tuesday, participants in financial markets were surprised by the rising Consumer Price Index, including Core CPI, which caused an increase in the USD. It, however, did not last long.

On Friday, the US Producer Price Index was released, which also unexpectedly showed growth, both annual and monthly. This time, the strengthening of the USD did not last long. As it grew, it was again sold against almost all of its competitors, including the CHF.

However, the Consumer Price Index for Switzerland released on Tuesday showed a decrease, which may force the Swiss National Bank to lower the interest rate before the US Federal Reserve does. So, the growth of the CHF against the USD may trigger its sales.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, February 19
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Producer Price Index (PPI).

Tuesday, February 20
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Meeting Minutes;
12:30 (09:30 GMT) – South Africa. Unemployment Rate;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Wednesday, February 21
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Trade Balance;
11:00 (08:00 GMT) - South Africa. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Retail Sales;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI);
22:00 (19:00 GMT) - USA. FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Thursday, February 22
11:30 (08:30 GMT) - Germany. HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
12:00 909:00 GMT) - Eurozone. HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, February 23
08:00 (05:00 GMT) - Singapore. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. GDP;
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Germany. IFO Business Climate.

The macroeconomic calendar of the past week was not rich in important events. The activity of financial market participants was quite low, especially in the foreign exchange market, where many currency pairs were practically frozen in narrow ranges, being in a consolidation phase.

A strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report was positive for the USD. Yet the USD growth against many competitors was not sustainable, with the exception of the JPY. Its position remains vulnerable as the Bank of Japan, contrary to the expectations of market participants, continues to adhere to an ultra-loose policy.

However, the USD/JPY is approaching the psychological level of 150.00, on the way to which the bulls may take profits on long positions and develop a downward correction. According to data released on Friday, the previous US inflation rate was revised downward, and if the US Consumer Price Index declines, the JPY may have a chance to gain back its losses.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, February 12
21:00 (18:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks;
22:00 (19:00 GMT) - USA. Federal Budget Balance.

Tuesday, February 13
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Australia. Westpac Consumer Sentiment;
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Producer Price Index (PPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Employment Change;
10:30 (07:30 GMT) - Switzerland. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Germany. ZEW Economic Sentiment;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Wednesday, February 14
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Industrial Production;
14:00 (11:00 GMT) – South Africa. Retail Sales.

Thursday, February 15
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. GDP;
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Employment Change;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. GDP;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Retail Sales;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
17:15 (14:15 GMT) - USA. Industrial Production.

Friday, February 16
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Singapore. Non-Oil Exports;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Retail Sales;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Producer Price Index (PPI);
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. Michigan Consumer Expectations, preliminary data.

Major events for financial markets last week were the Fed Interest Rate Decision and the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls, which could determine the immediate prospects for the USD.

The Federal Reserve, as expected, left the interest rate unchanged, which did not have much impact on the dynamics of the USD. In his comments, its chairman, Jerome Powell, clarified that expectations of an interest rate cut as early as March of this year were somewhat high. However, the comments failed to support the USD, and after a short-term rise, it came under pressure again.

The NFP report turned out to be better than the forecasts of market participants, and it managed to reverse the bearish sentiment towards the USD, which, following the data release, is winning back previously suffered losses. Strong employment data confirms the US economy outperforming the Eurozone economy. In the foreseeable future, it may negatively impact the dynamics of many of the USD competitors, particularly the EUR. Still, investors will continue closely monitoring US statistics, which could change the current situation for the worse for the USD at any time.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, February 5
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Tuesday, February 6
06:30 (03:30 GMT) - Australia. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision;
07:30 (04:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Press Conference;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Factory Orders;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Retail Sales;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - Canada. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Wednesday, February 7
00:45 (21:45 GMT) – New Zealand. Unemployment Rate;
09:45 (06:45 GMT) - Switzerland. Unemployment Rate;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Industrial Production;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Trade Balance.

Thursday, February 8
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - PRC. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, February 9
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Employment Change.

Major events of the past week were the Meetings of the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank. As financial market participants did not expect any surprises from these central banks, there was no surge in volatility following any of these events.

Although no action was expected from the Bank of Japan, its decision to leave the interest rate unchanged triggered the resumption of sales of the JPY, which once again confirms its weakness. Yet, the growth of stock indices remains an additional negative factor. However, the closer the historical lows against the USD are, the higher the risk of liquidating shorts on the JPY.

The ECB, as predicted, left interest rates unchanged, so investors' attention was focused on the comments of Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank. Although she confirmed her intention to continue fighting inflation, traders are betting that the Central Bank will begin lowering the rate starting April this year. As a result, the EUR may remain under pressure and continue to decline against the USD.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, January 29
18:30 (15:30 GMT) – USA. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.

Tuesday, January 30
02:30 (21:30 GMT) - Japan. Unemployment Rate;
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Germany. GDP;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. GDP;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. CB Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday, January 31
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Industrial Production;
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Monthly CPI Indicator;
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - PRC. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Retail Sales;
16:00 (13:00 GMT) - Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:15 (13:15 GMT) - USA. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. GDP;
22:00 (19:00 GMT) - USA. Fed Interest Rate Decision;
22:30 (19:30 GMT) - USA. FOMC Press Conference.

Thursday, February 1
04:45 (01:45 GMT) - PRC. Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
15:00 (12:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Friday, February 2
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Producer Price Index (PPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Unemployment Rate;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Average Hourly Earnings;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Nonfarm Payrolls.

After large-scale movements before the New Year, financial market participants took a break. As a result, the markets predominantly entered consolidation or correctional phases, rethinking and reassessing incoming macroeconomic statistics for both the United States and the Eurozone.

A stream of fairly strong data confirms the stability of the United States economy and the high probability of avoiding a recession. Market participants were forced to revise forecasts regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve starting to lower the interest rate, which helped the USD regain some of the lost positions. Still, one cannot talk of a resumption of the upward trend.

Stock indices have retreated from their pre-New Year highs and have been under pressure throughout the past week. However, investors' risk appetite remained, and falling stocks again attracted buying interest. As a result, US indices soared to fresh highs. Breaking through the next high confirms the strength of the bullish trend, but due to the war in Ukraine and the fragility of the global economy and the PRC economy in particular, bulls should be careful.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, January 22
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. CB Leading Index.

Tuesday, January 23
06:00 (03:00 GMT) - Japan. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. Richmond Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday, January 24
00:45 (21:45 GMT) – New Zealand. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
11:30 (08:30 GMT) - Germany. HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - Canada. Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision.

Thursday, January 25
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Germany. IFO Business Climate Index;
16:15 (13:15 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB Interest Rate Decision;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. GDP;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Durable Goods Orders;
16:45 (13:45 GMT) - USA. ECB Press Conference.

Friday, January 26
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

Throughout the past week, financial markets were predominantly uncertain, which had a corresponding impact on the situation in both the foreign exchange and stock markets. The markets entered a consolidation phase, and many financial instruments were stuck in trading ranges.

Investors focused on the US inflation data release, namely the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index. The CPI went upwards, and the market reaction was to buy the USD and sell on stock exchanges. Yet the indices and USD currency pairs could not escape the sideways trend.

PPI, in turn, increased slightly, putting pressure on the USD and support for the indices, but it also did not become a reason to leave the consolidation ranges. Since it is currently highly doubtful that the US Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates shortly, the current consolidation of the USD and indices may precede a larger correction. Yet, to trade on the reversal of pre-New Year trends, one should wait for the confirmation of technical indicators.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, January 15
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Germany. GDP;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Industrial Production.

Tuesday, January 16
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Producer Price Index (PPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Employment Change;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Germany. ZEW Economic Sentiment;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Wednesday, January 17
05:00 (02:00 GMT) - PRC. GDP;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Producer Price Index (PPI);
17:15 (14:15 GMT) - USA. Industrial Production;
18:15 (15:15 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks.

Thursday, January 18
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Employment Change;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, January 19
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Japan. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Producer Price Index (PPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Retail Sales.

The latest FOMC Meeting Minutes released last week offered nothing new to financial markets. Still, the USD continued its recovery after a fairly large fall amid expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year.

On Friday, the US labor market data was released, showing that the growth in nonfarm payrolls exceeded analysts' forecasts. However, the USD rise after the data release did not last long, although its fall was used for purchases.

The USD could continue its recovery this week as the stability of the US economy could support it. In addition, strong statistics may force the Fed to keep interest rates at current levels longer than expected. It will also help the USD maintain positive dynamics. In anticipation of the CPI data release in the USA, the strengthening of the USD is unlikely to be large-scale.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, January 8
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Retail Sales.

Tuesday, January 9
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Japan. Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI);
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Retail Sales;
09:45 (06:45 GMT) - Switzerland. Unemployment Rate;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Industrial Production;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Unemployment Rate;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Trade Balance.

Wednesday, January 10
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Monthly CPI Indicator.

Thursday, January 11
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Trade Balance;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Friday, January 12
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - PRC. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. GDP;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Industrial Production;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Producer Price Index (PPI).

The main driver in financial markets last week remained expectations of three interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in 2024, which intensified after corresponding statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Along with the above, the USD remained under selling pressure, and stock markets remained bullish.

Data released on Friday showed a decline in the PCE price index, increasing expectations of rate cuts. Thus, the USD closed the week with a fall, and the indices grew. Nevertheless, the USD bears and bulls in indices should be extremely careful since the “Christmas rally” could end with a deep correction.

The JPY also showed a positive mood. The trigger for its growth was both the above factors and expectations of changes in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. Although officials have not given any specifics at the moment, speculators are beginning to factor into the JPY exchange rate the curtailment of the ultra-soft policy by the Bank of Japan, and it may offer some additional support. At the same time, the interest rate differential has not gone away, and it remains a negative factor for the JPY.

Schedule for this week:

Tuesday, December 26
18:30 (15:30 GMT) - USA. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.

Wednesday, December 27
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. Richmond Manufacturing Index.

Thursday, December 28
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Retail Sales;
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Industrial Production;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, December 29
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI);
17:45 (14:45 GMT) - USA. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Last week was rich in important events, such as meetings of several world central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the ECB. In full accordance with expectations, none of the Central Banks began to raise or lower interest rates, so the main market driver was the officials' statements.

The main driver of movements in financial markets was the unexpected statement by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he forecasted three interest rate cuts next year. His words triggered a sell-off in the USD and the continuation of a large-scale rally in stock markets.

On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams tried to cool the enthusiasm of stock bulls and USD bears, stating that a rate cut was not expected shortly. It resulted in taking profits, but rather modestly at the moment. However, the fall in the USD and the rise in indices look excessive given the distant prospects for the Fed to cut rates, so bulls should be extremely careful as the correction may continue.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, December 18
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. New Housing Price Index.

Tuesday, December 19
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Meeting Minutes;
06:00 (03:00 GMT) - Japan. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Producer Price Index (PPI).

Wednesday, December 20
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Trade Balance;
10:00 (17:00 GMT) - Germany. Producer Price Index (PPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI);
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. CB Consumer Confidence.

Thursday, December 21
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. GDP;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Retail Sales;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, December 22
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Japan. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Retail Sales;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Durable Goods Orders;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Core PCE Price index;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. GDP.

Last week, the USD was mainly in demand, particularly against the EUR. The fall in industrial production in Germany, observed for the fifth month in a row, could signal that the country's economy will contract in the fourth quarter of this year. And it has a certain negative effect on the dynamics of the EUR.

The decline in Eurozone GDP, in turn, is a wake-up call for bulls, as it could herald the onset of a recession, although it is too early to talk about it at this stage. However, with the stability of the US economy compared to the threat of a recession in the Eurozone, the EUR may remain vulnerable.

The rapid rise of the JPY was a real surprise last week, fueled by speculation that the Bank of Japan would start raising interest rates following relatively hawkish comments by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. However, there are no signs of a trend reversal at the moment, and the growth of the JPY can still be used for sales.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, December 11
19:00 (16:00 GMT) - USA. Cleveland Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Tuesday, December 12
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Employment Change;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. ZEW Economic Sentiment;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Wednesday, December 13
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. GDP;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Industrial Production;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Industrial Production;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Producer Price Index (PPI);
22:00 (19:00 GMT) - USA. Fed Interest Rate Decision;
22:30 (19:30 GMT) - USA. FOMC Press Conference.

Thursday, December 14
00:45 (21:45 GMT) – New Zealand. GDP;
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Employment Change;
11:30 (08:30 GMT) - Switzerland. Swiss National Bank (SNB) Interest Rate Decision;
15:00 (12:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision;
16:15 (13:15 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB Interest Rate Decision;
16:45 (13:45 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB Press Conference.

Friday, December 15
05:00 (02:00 GMT) - PRC. Industrial Production;
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
17:15 (14:15 GMT) - USA. Industrial Production.

The main driving factor in financial markets last week was expectations that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates the next spring, which was facilitated by the release of US data showing a slowdown in inflation. Along with the above, the USD was actively selling off, and stock indices continued their November rally.

In his speech on Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called expectations of a rate cut too high, but this in no way cooled the interest of speculators in both the stock market and gold, which closed the week near its highs. The situation is similar with indices, which are also at or near peak values.

However, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the coming months, so both gold and the indices, given the overbought state in addition to the proximity of maximum values, may undergo a sell-off, and due to these risks, bulls should be extremely careful.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, December 4
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB President Lagarde Speaks;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. Factory Orders.

Tuesday, December 5
06:30 (03:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Interest Rate Decision;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Producer Price Index (PPI);
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Wednesday, December 6
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. GDP;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Factory Orders;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Retail Sales;
16:15 (13:15 GMT) - USA. ADP Employment Change;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - Canada. Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision.

Thursday, December 7
06:00 (03:00 GMT) - PRC. Trade Balance;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Industrial Production;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Building Permits.

Friday, December 8
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Unemployment Rate;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Nonfarm Payrolls;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Average Hourly Earnings.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, activity in financial markets was rather low last week. After a revaluation towards a significant reduction in the chances of the US Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate at the December meeting, the USD was mainly under selling pressure.

In addition, speculation about the Fed lowering the interest rate next year contributes to pressure on it. This, in turn, positively impacts the dynamics of stock indices and gold, which are trading near their highs. Their rally allows us to improve prospects and expect continued positive dynamics.

However, despite slowing inflation in the US and weak labor market data, the Federal Reserve still does not rule out raising the rate or keeping it high for the foreseeable future. It could lead to the liquidation of longs in gold and stock indices, so bulls on these instruments should be extremely cautious at current levels.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, November 27
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB President Lagarde Speaks;
18:30 (15:30 GMT) - USA. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.

Tuesday, November 28
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. GfK Consumer Climate;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. Richmond Manufacturing Index;
19:00 (16:00 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB President Lagarde Speaks.

Wednesday, November 29
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Monthly CPI Indicator;
04:00 (01:00 GMT) – New Zealand. RBNZ Rate Statement;
12:30 (09:30 GMT) – United Kingdom. Mortgage Approvals;
16:00 (13:00 GMT) - Germany. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. GDP.

Thursday, November 30
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Industrial Production;
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - PRC. National Bureau of Statistics Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. GDP;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Core PCE Price Index;
17:45 (14:45 GMT) - USA. Chicago PMI.

Friday, December 1
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Employment Change;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
19:00 (16:00 GMT) - USA. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks.

By carefully studying incoming macroeconomic statistics for the United States, financial market participants are trying to predetermine the prospects for interest rates in the United States. Declining inflation pressure and a cooling labor market have significantly reduced the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.

Moreover, investors are now beginning to factor into the price of trading instruments, particularly the USD, a potential rate reduction in the first quarter of the next year. As a result, the USD was again subject to a sell-off, closing the past week with a decline.

Speculation about the Federal Reserve lowering the interest rate also triggered the activation of bulls on stock exchanges and an impressive rally in stock indices. Although their rally suggests an improvement in the situation, and the next fall in the USD indicates a deterioration in its prospects, betting on continuing the current situation would be risky since the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the foreseeable future.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, November 20
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. CB Leading Index.

Tuesday, November 21
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Meeting Minutes;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
22:50 (19:50 GMT) - USA. FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Wednesday, November 22
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Durable Goods Orders.

Thursday, November 23
11:30 (08:30 GMT) - Germany. HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) ;
12:30 (09:30 GMT) – United Kingdom. CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Friday, November 24
00:45 (21:45 GMT) – New Zealand. Retail Sales;
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Japan. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. GDP;
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Retail Sales.

The past week turned out to be negative for the JPY. Its sales were triggered by the Bank of Japan's reluctance to abandon its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy, that is, the decision to leave the interest rate unchanged.

The USD managed to break through resistance around the psychological level of 150.00 and rise to the 151.90 benchmark, where sellers are currently active. The lack of reaction from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan to the pair's approach to multi-year highs stimulates the JPY bears to sell it, but as the pair moves up, the intervention risks grow, so they should be extremely careful.

Having received support from the situation in the Middle East, gold rose to the psychological level of $2,000 per ounce, but the bulls were unable to break through it despite all their persistence. It triggered the liquidation of long positions. Jerome Powell's hawkish comments also had a negative impact on the metal, and the bears may test the strong support of 1925. The aggravation of the situation in the Middle East may return the bulls to the market.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, November 13
22:00 (19:00 GMT) - USA. Federal Budget Balance.

Tuesday, November 14
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Employment Change;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Employment Change;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. GDP;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Wednesday, November 15
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. GDP;
05:00 (02:00 GMT) - PRC. Industrial Production;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Industrial Production;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Producer Price Index (PPI).

Thursday, November 16
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Trade Balance;
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Employment Change;
14:30 (11:30 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB President Lagarde Speaks;
17:15 (14:15 GMT) - USA. Industrial Production.

Friday, November 17
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Retail Sales;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Producer Price Index (PPI).

Israel launched a ground operation in the Gaza Strip, and along with the threat of a larger conflict in the Middle East, gold maintained positive dynamics. Nevertheless, the gold quotes could not break through the psychological level of $2,000 per ounce and gain a foothold above it.

Following the results of last week's FOMC meeting, the US Federal Reserve left the interest rate unchanged, which generally matched up with the expectations of market participants. The event had no significant impact on the dynamics of the USD and gold.

However, the release of weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls triggered a sell-off in the USD, and gold again got above $2,000 per ounce, but not for long. The weekly close was below this level, which poses the threat of a larger correction, so bulls should be extremely careful. In addition, the falling USD can still be used for purchases.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, November 6
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - Canada. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Tuesday, November 7
06:00 (03:00 GMT) - PRC. Trade Balance;
06:30 (03:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Interest Rate Decision;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - Germany. Industrial Production;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Producer Price Index (PPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Trade Balance.

Wednesday, November 8
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Retail Sales;
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - Canada. Building Permits;
17:15 (14:15 GMT) - USA. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks.

Thursday, November 9
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - PRC. Producer Price Index (PPI);
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - PRC. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:30 (13:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
22:00 (19:00 GMT) - USA. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks.

Friday, November 10
10:00 (07:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. GDP;
10:00 (07:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Industrial Production;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks;
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary data.

The main event of the past week that could trigger a surge in volatility in the markets, no doubt, was Israel's war with Hamas. The military conflict, as market participants fear, could involve other countries, in particular Iran and the United States.

Based on these concerns, gold was in great demand, and as a result, its quotes broke through several strong resistances, including the psychological level of $2,000 per ounce, and closed the trading week above this level. This growth allows us to be optimistic about the prospects for the precious metal, but high-interest rates in the US and the "localization" of the conflict may return sellers to the market.

Despite fears of an expansion of the war zone in the region and Saudi Arabia's reduction in oil production, oil futures are predominantly trading in a negative mood. The lifting of the Russian ban on the export of diesel fuel and the easing of US sanctions against Venezuelan oil facilitates it. However, there are no reasons for a price collapse, so bears should be extremely careful.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, October 30
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Germany. GDP;
16:00 (13:00 GMT) - Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
17:30 (14:30 GMT) - USA. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.

Tuesday, October 31
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Industrial Production;
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - PRC. The National Bureau of Statistics Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
06:00 (03:00 GMT) - Japan. Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. GDP;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. GDP.

Wednesday, November 1
00:45 (21:45 GMT) – New Zealand. Unemployment Rate;
04:45 (01:45 GMT) - PRC. Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
15:15 (12:15 GMT) - USA. ADP Employment Change;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
21:00 (18:00 GMT) - USA. Fed Interest Rate Decision;
21:30 (18:30 GMT) - USA. FOMC Press Conference.

Thursday, November 2
10:30 (07:30 GMT) - Switzerland. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
11:55 (08:55 GMT) - Germany. Unemployment Rate;
15:00 (12:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. Factory Orders.

Friday, November 3
04:45 (01:45 GMT) - PRC. Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Unemployment Rate;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) – USA. Unemployment Rate;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Nonfarm Payrolls;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Average Hourly Earnings;

The situation in the Middle East, where Israel's armed conflict with Hamas could lead to broader military action in the region, set the tone for trading in financial markets last week. Under these conditions, investors preferred eliminating risky assets by buying the USD, CHF, and gold.

Thus, the price of the precious metal, as a result of relentless growth, by the end of the week jumped to the level of 1997 USD per ounce, after which it rolled back to the support of 1965. After passing several important resistances, the prospects for gold look constructive. However, the localization of the conflict, along with the fact that the metal brings no high profitability, may become a reason for the development of a correction.

In contrast to gold, stock indices are very depressed, which, in addition to anti-risk sentiment, is facilitated by another surge in growth in US government bond yields. They are currently showing signs of oversold, which could trigger short liquidation, but bulls should still be extremely cautious.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, October 23
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Chicago Fed National Activity.

Tuesday, October 24
13:00 (10:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. CBI Industrial Trends Orders;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. Richmond Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday, October 25
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
11:00 (08:00 GMT) - Germany. IFO Business Climate Index;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision;
23:35 (20:35 GMT) - USA. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks.

Thursday, October 26
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Durable Goods Orders;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. GDP;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, October 27
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Producer Price Index (PPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Core PCE Price Index;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, revised data.

After the rapid rise in yields on American government bonds that triggered a rise in the USD and a fall in stock indices, the attention of financial market participants was drawn to the Middle East, where the armed conflict between Israel and Hamas threatens to escalate into a large-scale war.

Along with the above, market participants were once again seized by anti-risk sentiment, and, in addition to the USD, they actively bought gold. As a result, it rose to $1,932 per ounce. The United States, Egypt, and Israel have agreed on a temporary ceasefire in southern Gaza. If hostilities "fade out" and/or the conflict is localized, gold bulls may begin to liquidate longs.

This situation also triggered oil purchases. Saudi Arabia intends to continue its voluntary reduction in oil production, which may continue to support oil futures. However, the same "localization" of the conflict in the Middle East may limit their upward potential.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, October 16
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Trade Balance;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index.

Tuesday, October 17
00:45 (21:45 GMT) – New Zealand. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Meeting Minutes;
09:00 (06:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Employment Change;
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Germany. ZEW Economic Sentiment;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
16:15 (13:15 GMT) - USA. Industrial Production.

Wednesday, October 18
05:00 (02:00 GMT) - PRC. GDP;
09:00 (06:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Building Permits.

Thursday, October 19
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Trade Balance;
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. Employment Change;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Producer Price Index (PPI);
19:00 (16:00 GMT) - USA. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks.

Friday, October 20
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Japan. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. Producer Price Index (PPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Retail Sales.

Last week's main driving factor in the financial markets was the rise in US government bond yields. Due to the above, the USD was again in demand, and the stock markets experienced a fairly massive sell-off.

On Friday, the Unemployment Rate, Average Wages, and Nonfarm Payrolls were released. Following the data release, sellers took a break, the USD was under pressure, and stock indices were recouping losses. The strong NFP report did not become an obstacle to taking profits on the USD longs, while bears should still be careful since the USD can be bought back in the fall.

Volatility remained high in the oil market. Saudi Arabia's reduction in the rate of black gold production triggered a large-scale increase in futures, but due to the active liquidation of longs, futures closed the week far from their highs. However, the situation in the Middle East will encourage bulls to become more active, and oil may be in demand when it declines.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, October 9
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. Industrial Production.

Tuesday, October 10
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Australia. Westpac Consumer Sentiment;
03:30 (00:30 GMT) - Australia. NAB Business Confidence;
13:00 (10:00 GMT) - USA. NFIB Small Business Optimism.

Wednesday, October 11
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Producer Price Index (PPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. PCE Price index;
21:00 (18:00 GMT) - USA. FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Thursday, October 12
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Producer Price Index (PPI);
09:00 (06:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Industrial Production;
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. GDP;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, October 13
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - PRC. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Industrial Production;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary data.

With the impending US government shutdown, investors got rid of risky assets last week, preferring not the JPY, CHF, or Gold but the USD, which again shows positive dynamics across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market.

Flight from risk led to increased US government bond yields and another fall in stock indices. Thus, the upward trend, which has lasted for many years, is in danger of reversing. Yet it is premature to talk about this since the United States has temporarily avoided a lockdown, and now both sides have time to agree acceptable to everyone.

The rise in the USD also contributed to the further development of the correction in the precious metals market, and as a result, Gold broke through several strong supports and collapsed to the level of $1,832 per ounce. The RSI signals strong oversold conditions, which could trigger an upward rebound, but not necessarily from current levels.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, October 2
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
18:00 (15:00 GMT) - USA. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks.

Tuesday, October 3
06:30 (03:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Interest Rate Decision;
09:30 (06:30 GMT) - Switzerland. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Wednesday, October 4
04:00 (01:00 GMT) – New Zealand. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision;
11:15 (08:15 GMT) - Eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks;
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Retail Sales;
15:15 (12:15 GMT) - USA. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. Factory Orders.

Thursday, October 5
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. Trade Balance;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - Canada. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Friday, October 6
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. Factory Orders;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Employment Change;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Unemployment Rate;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Nonfarm Payrolls;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Average Hourly Earnings.

Last week, meetings of the ECB, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Japan were held. Among them, the ECB was the only one to take such a step as raising the interest rate, while its comments this time were “soft” enough to trigger the EUR sales.

The rest of the central banks decided to leave the interest rate unchanged, which triggered sales of the GBP, CHF, and JPY. Thus, the USD continues to maintain its strength, and its main competitors will stay on a downward trend in the near future.

Only the JPY carries certain risks for the bears since the USD paired with the JPY is approaching the psychological level of 150.00. The closer it is to this level, the higher the risks of intervention by the Bank of Japan, namely intervention to stop the fall of the JPY. However, these risks hardly mean that the Bank of Japan will intervene at current levels.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, September 25
17:30 (14:30 GMT) - USA. Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index.

Tuesday, September 26
04:00 (01:00 GMT) - Australia. RBA Annual Conference 2023;
17:00 (14:00 GMT) - USA. CB Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday, September 27
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - Australia. Weighted Mean Consumer Price Index (CPI);
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. GfK German Consumer Climate;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Durable Goods Orders.

Thursday, September 28
15:00 (12:00 GMT) - Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. GDP;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, September 29
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Japan. Unemployment Rate;
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Industrial Production;
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. Retail Sales;
10:55 (07:55 GMT) - Germany. Unemployment Rate;
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Core PCE Price index;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. GDP;
16:45 (13:45 GMT) - USA. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

The main event of the past week was the ECB Meeting, which resulted in another increase in the interest rate by 25 basis points. In general, this decision was expected, so the accompanying statement caused a major reaction.

In the statement, the ECB allowed a pause in the cycle of interest rate hikes that triggered a sell-off in the EUR. As a result, it collapsed against several of its competitors, including the USD. The latter continues to be in demand due to the stability of the US economy and weak macroeconomic indicators in the Eurozone and Germany.

The market situation is highly unlikely to change shortly. Still, this week, the interest rate decisions by the US Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will be released. Each of the decisions of these Central Banks may affect the dynamics of the corresponding currency pairs. Before these events, it is better to refrain from active actions.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, September 18
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Producer Price Index (PPI).

Tuesday, September 19
04:30 (01:30 GMT) - Australia. RBA Meeting Minutes;
12:00 (09:00 GMT) - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Building Permits;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Wednesday, September 20
02:50 (23:50 GMT) - Japan. Trade Balance;
09:00 (06:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - Germany. Producer Price Index (PPI);
21:00 (18:00 GMT) - USA. Fed Interest Rate Decision;
21:30 (18:30 GMT) - USA. FOMC Press Conference.

Thursday, September 21
01:45 (22:45 GMT) – New Zealand. GDP;
10:30 (07:30 GMT) - Switzerland. SNB Interest Rate Decision;
14:00 (11:00 GMT) – United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - USA. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, September 22
02:30 (23:30 GMT) - Japan. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
06:00 (03:00 GMT) - Japan. BoJ Interest Rate Decision;
09:00 (06:00 GMT) - United Kingdom. Retail Sales;
15:30 (12:30 GMT) - Canada. Retail Sales.