Wild-cutters Hold Off With Repurchasing Of Euro (Weekly Review)

Previous week financial markets were affected mostly by trade wars between US and China, EU, Canada and Mexico, and also by controversy among European countries on refuges issue. Some settlements were reached at EU Summit and on its background Euro got motive for reinforcement, but it failed to leave consolidation range along with the US Dollar. Rate of interest differential continues playing into bulls’ hands by US Dollar, and controversies on migration policy among political opponents in Germany promote keeping the pressure on Euro.

Development of trade war between the US and China aided to massive sale of Chinese Yuan, and also sale at markets. Downfall of indexes supports Japanese Yen, but rate of interest differential stays one of the most negative factors for it. Thus Dollar in pair with it, in the nearest future, can be traded in range of 111th and 108th figure.

In response to the US actions Canada put up trade barriers for some US commodities, but Canadian Dollar at the end of week managed to win back some part of lost positions in pair with the US Dollar. Till effect of mutual trade barriers between the US and Canada has become the trigger for panic in pair of USD/CAD; it is also significantly affected by dynamics of oil price. Mostly this situation unlikely seems prosperous for Canadian, and its reduction can be restrain only with oil increase, but trade wars any moment can become the reason for sale of American along whole market. Meanwhile there is no reason for it.  

This week’s agenda:

Monday, 2nd of July
07:55 GMT - Germany. Manufacturing PMI Markit;
08:00 GMT - Еврозона. Manufacturing PMI Markit;
08:30 GMT – Great Britain. Manufacturing PMI Markit;
09:00 GMT - Eurozone. Unemployment rate;
14:00 GMT - US. Manufacturing ISM index;
14:00 GMT - US. Index of inflation gradual build up from ISM.

Tuesday, 3rd of July
01:30 GMT - Australia. Construction permit;
04:30 GMT - Australia. RBA’s decision on interest rate;
04:30 GMT - Australia. RBA’s covering announcement;

08:30 GMT – Great Britain. Construction PMI;
09:00 GMT - Eurozone. Retail sales;
13:30 GMT - Canada. Manufacturing PMI;
14:00 GMT - US. USMTO.

Wednsday, 4th of July
US. Independence Day.
01:30 GMT - Japan. Speech Harada, the representative of Bank of Japan;
01:30 GMT - Australia. Balance of trade;
01:30 GMT - Australia. Import/Export;
01:30 GMT - Australia. Retail sale;
07:55 GMT - Germany. Composite index of economic activity Markit;
07:55 GMT - Germany. ISM Services index Markit;
08:00 GMT - Eurozone. Composite index of economic activity in manufacturing sector Markit;
08:00 GMT - Eurozone. ISM Services index Markit ;
08:30 GMT – Great Britain. ISM Services index Markit .

Thursday, 5th of July
06:00 GMT - Germany. Manufacturing orders;
07:15 GMT - Switzerland. CPI;
10:00 GMT – Great Britain. Speech of Mark Carney, the Governor of Bank of England;
12:15 GMT - US. ADP report on employment rate in private sector;
12:30 GMT - US. Basic applications for dole;
13:45 GMT - US. Composite index of economic activity Markit;
14:00 GMT - US. ISM Services index;
18:00 GMT - US. Minutes of meeting of Federal Open Market Committee.

Friday, 6th of July
22:30 GMT - Australia. Construction PMI from AiG;
23:30 GMT - Japan. Household spending;
06:00 GMT - Germany. Industrial production;
12:30 GMT - US. Amount of created jobs outside of agricultural sector (June);
12:30 GMT - US. Unemployment rate;
12:30 GMT - US. Average hourly earnings;

12:30 GMT - Canada. IMTS;
12:30 GMT - Canada. Change in number of employed;
12:30 GMT - Canada. Unemployment rate;

14:00 GMT - US. Ivey PMI.

Author: Anthony Porter, IAFT Analyst