Last Week Events Did Not Revive the Currency Market (Weekly Review)

2019-04-16
Macroeconomic calendar last week contained a number of important events, among which we should highlight the meeting of the European Central Bank and the summit of leaders of the European Union on granting the United Kingdom a postponement of termination of membership in the EU. Also, investors' attention is still focused on trade negotiations between the United States and China, which are expected to put an end to the trade war between these countries.

In full accordance with the forecasts, the ECB left the interest rate unchanged. The “pigeon” comments of the ECB Governon, Mario Draghi, which lowered the forecast for inflation and the growth rate of the Eurozone economy, caused a negative reaction from market participants. The fall of the EUR against the USD, however, was used for purchases, and as a result it ended the week at around 1.1200. Its growth was due to the fixation of profits on short positions caused by technical factors, so we cannot still talk about a trend reversal.

At the EU summit, it was decided to provide the UK with a postponement on Brexit until October 31, but this news failed to revive the GBP buyers. Together with the USD, it remains below 1.3100, risking again to test the psychological level of 1.3000. Despite the importance of these events, the volatility in the foreign exchange market remains extremely low, and is likely to be the same this week.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, April 15
12:30 GMT - USA. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr);
14:30 GMT - Canada. BoC Business Outlook Survey;
16:00 GMT – United Kingdom. Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Haskel Speaks.

Tuesday, April 16
01:30 GMT - Australia. Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes;
02:00 GMT - PRC. Press Conference of the National Bureau of Statistics of China;
02:00 GMT - PRC. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI);
08:30 GMT - United Kingdom. Claimant Count Change;
08:30 GMT - United Kingdom. Average Wages ex Bonuses;
08:30 GMT – United Kingdom. ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Feb);
09:00 GMT - Germany. ZEW Economic Sentiment;
12:55 GMT - USA. Redbook Index;
13:15 GMT - USA. Industrial Production.

Wednesday, April 17
22:45 GMT – New Zealand. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
02:00 GMT - PRC. GDP;
02:00 GMT - PRC. Industrial Production;
02:00 GMT - PRC. Retail Sales;
04:30 GMT - Japan. Industrial Production;
08:30 GMT - United Kingdom. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
08:30 GMT - United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI);
09:00 GMT - Eurozone. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI);
09:00 GMT - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
12:30 GMT - Canada. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
12:30 GMT - Canada. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI);
12:30 GMT - USA. Trade Balance (Feb);
18:00 GMT - USA. Beige Book.

Thursday, April 18
23:50 GMT - Japan. Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks;
01:30 GMT - Australia. Unemployment Rate (Mar);
01:30 GMT - Australia. Employment Rate (Mar);
06:00 GMT - Germany. Producer Price Index (PPI);
07:30 GMT - Germany. Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
07:30 GMT - Germany. Markit Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
08:00 GMT - Eurozone. Markit Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
08:00 GMT – Eurozone. Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
08:30 GMT – United Kingdom. Retail Sales;
12:30 GMT - Canada. Retail Sales ex Autos;
12:30 GMT - USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
12:30 GMT - USA. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
12:30 GMT - USA. Retail Sales.

Friday, April 19
23:30 GMT - Japan. National Consumer Price Index (CPI);
12:30 GMT - USA. Building Permits;
12:30 GMT - USA. Housing Starts.

Author: Anthony Porter, IAFT Analyst

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