USD Was Declining, and Oil Remained Under Pressure (Weekly Review)

2020-04-14
The past trading week was rather calm, and volatility decreased significantly. Stock indices showed a mostly positive attitude, continuing to recoup previous losses. Nevertheless, this did not promote any USD growth against the JPY, which triggered taking profit on long positions, and as a result the USD/JPY closed the week with a decline to the support of 108.20.

Other major competitors of the USD, such as the EUR, the GBP, and the CHF, also strengthened paired with the USD. The pressure on the USD was reinforced by the US Federal Reserve launching a new credit program totaling $2.3 trillion aimed at supporting local governments and small and medium businesses. Nevertheless, fears of possible negative consequences for the Eurozone and the British economy due to the spread of coronavirus are unlikely to allow the EUR and the GBP to develop a more intensive growth.

The attention of market participants was focused on negotiations between OPEC + and the United States regarding a large-scale reduction in production volumes to stabilize prices, but despite the parties reaching an agreement, oil futures have been under pressure since the beginning of the new week, as the reduction of production may not offset the negative effect of falling demand. However, bears should be extremely careful, as bull attempts to break higher amid OPEC + are still possible.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, April 13
Germany. Easter Monday.
United Kingdom. Easter Monday.
Canada. Easter Monday.

Tuesday, April 14
02:00 GMT - PRC. Trade Balance;
02:00 GMT - PRC. Import/Export;
12:55 GMT - USA. Redbook Index.

Wednesday, April 15 
00:30 GMT - Australia. Westpac Consumer Confidence;
12:30 GMT - USA. Retail Sales;
13:15 GMT - USA. Industrial Production;
14:00 GMT - Canada. Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision;
14:00 GMT - Canada. Bank of Canada Rate Statement;
15:15 GMT - Canada. Bank of Canada Press Conference.

Thursday, April 16
01:00 GMT - Australia. Inflation Expectations;
01:30 GMT - Australia. Employment Rate;
01:30 GMT - Australia. Unemployment Rate;
06:00 GMT – Germany. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP);
06:00 GMT – Germany. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
09:00 GMT - Eurozone. Industrial Production;
12:30 GMT - USA. Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday, April 17
02:00 GMT - PRC. GDP;
02:00 GMT - PRC. Industrial Production;
02:00 GMT - PRC. Retail Sales;
09:00 GMT - Eurozone. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
09:00 GMT - Eurozone. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Author: Anthony Porter, IAFT Analyst

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