The EUR is Growing, But It Could Be Off Its Luck if the Leaders of the EU Countries Do not Come to an Agreement (Weekly Review)

2020-07-21
Important macroeconomic statistics that could trigger large-scale movements in the foreign exchange market were not released last week, so the attention of its participants was mostly focused on negotiations of the EU countries, where the fate of large-scale financial influences is being decided in order to mitigate the negative impact of the spread of coronavirus in Europe.

Earlier, the disagreement of the negotiators on a number of issues had a restraining effect on the EUR attempts to develop upward dynamics, but statements by the leaders of a number of countries about some progress contributed to the advance of the EUR against the USD to 1.1465. By the end of last week, no real results were reported, but the EUR/USD was able to close the week near its highs.

The negotiations will be resumed today, and further dynamics of the single currency may depend on their progress or lack thereof. The GBP, in its turn, remains dependent on trade negotiations between the UK and the EU, where there is no progress at this stage either. Along with the USD general weakness, the GBP may remain positive, but the closer Brexit is without a trade deal, the more difficult it will be to keep afloat.

Schedule for this week:

Monday, July 20
09:00 GMT - Eurozone. Vice-President of the European Central Bank Luis De Guindos Speaks;
15:10 GMT - United Kingdom. Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Haldane Speaks.

Tuesday, July 21
23:30 GMT - Japan. National Consumer Price Index (CPI);
01:30 GMT - Australia. Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes;
02:30 GMT - Australia. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe Speaks;
12:30 GMT - Canada. Retail Sales.

Wednesday, July 22
01:30 GMT - Australia. Retail Sales;
12:30 GMT - Canada. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI);
12:30 GMT - Canada. Consumer Price Index (CPI);
13:00 GMT - USA. House Price Index.

Thursday, July 23
06:00 GMT - Germany. Gfk Consumer Climate;
12:30 GMT - USA. Initial Jobless Claims;
14:00 GMT - Eurozone. Consumer Confidence.

Friday, July 24 
22:45 GMT - New Zealand. Trade Balance;
06:00 GMT - United Kingdom. Retail Sales;
07:30 GMT - Germany. Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
08:30 GMT - United Kingdom. Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
13:45 GMT - USA. Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI);
14:00 GMT - USA. New Home Sales.

Author: Anthony Porter, IAFT Analyst

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