ICRA projected a 1-2% decline in Kharif sowing in 2026

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ICRA: Kharif 2026 Decline

Highlights

ICRA estimated that Kharif sowing in 2026 could decline by 1-2% year-on-year, mainly due to a weak monsoon in August.
As of July 31, 2026, Kharif sowing acreage is down 3%, with pulses down 6-8%, rice down 2.2%, and cotton down 2.4%.
ICRA projected about 1.2% growth in GVA for agriculture, forestry, and fisheries in FY 2027, though it flagged downside risks.

This article was translated from the original. Read the original version by our correspondent here.

Monsoon Forecast and Sowing Scenario

According to ICRA, below-normal rainfall in August 2026, which may fall below 94% of LPA, raises concerns for the Kharif season as about 29% of the southwest monsoon's rainfall and nearly 20% of total Kharif sowing occur during this month. The agency states that July 2026 saw 103% of LPA rainfall, which was better than the India Meteorological Department's forecast of less than 94% LPA, supporting the pace of sowing.

Cumulative rainfall across the country during June-July 2026 remained at 87% of LPA, with regional and temporal disparities also evident. ICRA estimates that if actual rainfall in August-September 2026 remains at 93% of LPA, the total southwest monsoon rainfall for the season will be around 90% of LPA, in line with IMD's second long-range forecast issued in May 2026 of 90% plus or minus 4% LPA.

The agency notes that for Kharif sowing to reach last year's final acreage in the remaining season, it would need to increase by about 13%, which appears to be a high target. On this basis, ICRA maintains its expectation of a 1-2% year-on-year decline in cumulative Kharif sowing for the 2026 season.

Impact on Agricultural Growth and Crop-wise Trends

As of July 31, 2026, Kharif sowing acreage is about 3% lower year-on-year, whereas as of June 25, 2026, the decline was around 23%. Increased rainfall in July reduced the decline in sowing of pulses and coarse grains to the 6-8% range, while rice saw a relatively mild drop of 2.2% and cotton 2.4%.

In contrast, sugarcane and oilseeds acreage showed year-on-year growth. ICRA believes that better performance in the non-crop segment of agriculture could prevent contraction in agricultural gross value added, as seen in several previous El Niño years.

The agency continues to project about 1.2% growth in GVA for agriculture, forestry, and fisheries in FY 2027, though it notes the risks are tilted to the downside.

Our previous report discussed ICRA's July 2026 sectoral research update, which highlighted concerns about fiscal pressures linked to a sharp rebound in domestic passenger traffic and rising capital expenditure. That article also emphasized that the outlook would depend on how effectively companies manage input costs and market demand.

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