WTI is trading around $80.9 a barrel, up roughly 2% on the four-hour chart. After the recent decline toward the $75-$76 area, buyers have returned and pushed prices back above the $78-$80 zone.
The short-term technical picture has improved, with crude moving above its faster moving averages and now testing a more important resistance area. A broader trend reversal, however, has yet to be confirmed, as selling pressure remains visible above current levels around $82-$84.
U.S. inventory data send mixed signal
The fundamental backdrop remains mixed. According to the latest EIA report, U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels to 407.0 million in the week ended July 31, although stocks remain about 6% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels and distillate stocks declined by 3.5 million, partly offsetting the bearish impact of the crude build. At the same time, gradually rising OPEC+ supply continues to cap the upside, while the demand outlook remains sensitive to global growth and consumption trends in Asia.
Middle East tensions keep risk premium elevated
Middle East tensions remain the main source of support for WTI. Uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, given the large share of global crude flows that pass through the route. As long as disruption risks remain elevated, sellers may find it more difficult to push WTI back toward recent lows. A meaningful de-escalation or progress toward normalizing shipping conditions, however, could remove part of that premium relatively quickly.
WTI eyes $82 as rebound gains traction
From a technical perspective, near-term momentum favors further recovery. Initial resistance is seen around $81.50-$82.00, and a sustained break above that area could open the way toward $83.50-$84.00. A stronger supply zone is located around $85.50-$86.50. On the downside, the first support area is now around $79.00-$78.00, while the $75-$76 zone remains the key support region. As I noted in the article WTI retreats toward $77 as U.S. stock build tempers Middle East risk, as long as WTI holds above $78, the recovery scenario remains more compelling than a renewed test of recent lows.
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