Oil gains as Iran tensions support prices

Oil gains as Iran tensions support prices
Brent tops $104 as supply risks persist

​Oil prices climbed again Thursday as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran showed little evidence of a breakthrough, keeping concerns about Middle East supply and shipping routes at the center of the market. Uncertainty over possible U.S. restrictions on diesel exports added another source of pressure to already tight fuel markets.

Highlights

  • Brent rose 1.73%, while WTI gained 1.33%.
  • U.S.-Iran negotiations have yet to produce a clear path toward easing regional oil disruptions.
  • Uncertainty over U.S. diesel exports is adding pressure to an already tight refined-fuel market.

Brent crude futures were trading at $104.86 a barrel, up 1.73%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures stood at $93.39, up 1.33%, according to the latest market data provided. The gains followed an earlier advance that pushed Brent to $106.50 a barrel as investors assessed developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, Reuters reported.

Diplomacy leaves supply risks unresolved

Iran and the U.S. remained divided over the conditions for ending the conflict. Tehran has prioritized lifting the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and reopening the Strait of Hormuz while reviewing Washington’s response to its proposals.

The lack of a clear agreement has maintained a geopolitical premium in international crude prices. Brent is particularly sensitive to disruptions affecting Middle Eastern exports and maritime routes because it serves as the main global oil benchmark. WTI is comparatively more closely tied to U.S. supply conditions.

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the outlook because disruptions there can affect crude and refined-product flows from major Gulf producers. With no clear diplomatic resolution, traders continue to account for the possibility of prolonged constraints on regional shipments.

Diesel markets remain under pressure

European diesel futures remained around record levels as traders weighed uncertainty over U.S. exports. A White House official denied a report that the administration was preparing a 90-day ban on diesel exports, but the possibility of restrictions has remained a focus for energy markets.

U.S. fuel inventories provide little cushion. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 428,000 barrels to 107.4 million barrels last week.

Crude inventories moved in the opposite direction, rising by 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels. The increase contrasted with expectations for a 641,000-barrel decline.

Supply uncertainty keeps oil elevated

The combination of unresolved U.S.-Iran negotiations, constrained shipping, and tight diesel inventories leaves the oil market sensitive to diplomatic and policy developments. Brent holding above $100 underscores how strongly geopolitical risk remains embedded in international crude prices.

The diesel market is another important variable. Restrictions on U.S. exports could tighten overseas supplies even if intended to contain domestic fuel costs, while low U.S. distillate inventories leave limited room for additional disruption.

We also reported bond markets slide as the rate outlook shifts.

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