Soybean Futures price forecast: USX1,273 support as ZS drops 1.55%

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Soybean Futures drop 1.55% today

Highlights

China maintains a 10% additional tariff on U.S. soybeans, limiting export price competitiveness despite recent tariff adjustments on other U.S. agricultural goods.
Chinese state firms Sinograin and COFCO together have bought over 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2024, nearing half of China's annual trade truce commitment.
Soybean futures trade below short- and medium-term averages with intraday technicals signaling oversold conditions and a 73% probability of further downside within an expected range of $1,273 to $1,303.

Chinese demand persists but tariffs cap export upside

China recently implemented tariff cuts on several U.S. agricultural imports, yet soybeans remain subject to a 10% additional tariff, which continues to hinder their export price competitiveness. Despite this, state firms Sinograin and COFCO have collectively purchased more than 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2024, representing nearly half of Beijing's annual purchase commitment under the standing trade truce, according to Observervoice. The persistence of tariffs limits further upside from ongoing Chinese demand, reflecting a market environment where fundamental purchases have not been enough to counterbalance prevailing export barriers.

Downtrend momentum as resistance holds amid oversold signals

ZS is trading below the MA-20 at USX1,312 and MA-50 at USX1,315 on the H4 chart, but remains above the MA-200 at USX1,190 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun at USX1,312 acts as immediate resistance, while support is visible near USX1,273. Momentum signals are negative, with MACD giving a Sell signal and ADX staying Neutral. RSI is at 37.76 and, alongside Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power, highlights oversold levels with strong intraday selling pressure. The Awesome Oscillator also confirms the downtrend.

Consolidation band likely as downside risk outweighs rebound

In the short term, ZS is expected to trade within a range of USX1,273 to USX1,303, reflecting typical volatility. There is a 73% probability of continued downside, while the likelihood of an upward rebound is just 27%. The primary scenario is continued consolidation within this band. A breakout above resistance levels near USX1,312 could trigger short covering, while a drop below USX1,273 risks accelerating the sell-off.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees short-term technical and fundamental obstacles dominating Soybean Futures. He notes that ongoing Chinese tariffs continue to undermine export competitiveness, while current demand from state firms only partially supports the market. Momentum and chart signals remain negative, with resistance near USX1,312 capping any rebound attempts. "Unless Soybeans reclaim key moving averages, I remain defensive and expect price action to stay pressured within the recent trading range."

Earlier, analysts noted that Soybean Futures were facing near-term downside risks, though underlying longer-term trends remained broadly supportive. The latest data confirms mounting technical and fundamental pressures, making a decisive move outside the current USX1,273–USX1,303 range a critical signal for the next directional breakout.

Source of Data: ZS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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