Stable day for Soybean Futures as USX1,305 resistance remains in focus

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Soybean Futures up 0.78% to USX1,297

Highlights

China maintains a 10% additional tariff on U.S. soybeans, limiting their competitiveness for Chinese private buyers and export demand.
Chinese state-run enterprises continue to purchase U.S. soybeans, providing limited support amid ongoing trade restrictions.
Soybean futures trade below short- and medium-term moving averages with conflicting momentum signals and are expected to remain in a USX1,276 to USX1,319 range in the short term.

US tariffs curb Chinese demand despite state purchases

China confirmed on September 28, 2026, that soybeans from the U.S. remain subject to an additional 10% tariff, making them less competitive for private Chinese buyers and limiting export demand, according to Bloomberg. This decision dampens opportunities for U.S. growers to regain share in the world’s largest soybean import market and weighs on the outlook for Soybean Futures. However, the Times of India reports that Chinese state-run entities have continued purchasing U.S. soybeans, which offers some offsetting support, though overall demand remains pressured by ongoing trade barriers.

Mixed momentum as oversold signals meet technical resistance

On the H4 chart, ZS is trading below the MA-20 (USX1,305) and MA-50 (USX1,313), while remaining above the long-term MA-200 at USX1,192 on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at USX1,305. Among indicators, MACD shows sell momentum and both RSI and CCI are in sell zones; ADX is neutral, suggesting weak trend strength, and Stochastic RSI is also neutral. Bull/Bear Power readings are oversold, indicating strong intraday selling, while the Awesome Oscillator provides no clear directional signal. Price action is near today’s high, but oscillators point toward a modest downside bias amid mixed short-term signals.

Rangebound outlook as breakout odds tilt bearish

Over the next few days, ZS is expected to trade within a volatility band between USX1,276 and USX1,319. There is a 45% probability of an upward breakout, but a downward move is slightly more likely in the near term. The baseline scenario anticipates continued ranging between support and resistance. Should ZS break above USX1,305, additional gains could be triggered, while a drop below USX1,276 support would expose the contract to further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that fundamental and macro drivers remain mixed for Soybean Futures. He sees China’s continued tariffs as a headwind but acknowledges state-run demand as a key stabilizer. Overall sentiment is weighed down, but structural support remains from long-term trend levels. In his view, momentum to the upside may develop if ZS breaks USX1,305 resistance. "If Soybean Futures can reclaim USX1,305, we could see renewed buying as institutional flows react to any easing in trade barriers or technical strength."

Earlier, analysts noted that Soybean Futures were likely to remain in a consolidation phase amid mixed momentum signals and cautious trading. The latest developments regarding ongoing Chinese tariffs and muted technical strength reinforce the expectation for continued range-bound action, making moves above USX1,305 or below USX1,276 key breakout levels to monitor.

Source of Data: ZS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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