Soybean Futures consolidate as China state firms purchase 13.7M tons US soybeans

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Soybean futures slip 0.15% to USX1,299

Highlights

Chinese state companies purchased 13.7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, directly aiding U.S. export demand despite trade tariffs.
Chinese soybean crusher inventories reached 7.96 million metric tons, the highest in at least 15 years, with continued 10% tariffs on U.S. soybeans.
ZS/USX is under short- and medium-term downward pressure but remains above long-term support; expected trading range is USX1,277 to USX1,320 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Chinese purchases support U.S. exports as tariffs and inventories curb demand

Chinese state companies have completed purchases of roughly 13.7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, directly supporting U.S. export activity despite ongoing trade headwinds. However, Chinese crusher inventories climbed to 7.96 million metric tons for the week ended September 25, 2026, the highest in at least 15 years, while U.S. soybeans continue to be subject to an additional 10% Chinese tariff, according to Agbull. Elevated inventory levels and continued tariffs may limit near-term demand for further U.S. shipments, helping to moderate upward price momentum.

Resistance tightens at key averages as momentum indicators diverge

ZS/USX is currently positioned just below the MA-20 at USX1,300 and the MA-50 at USX1,310 on the H4 chart, with the Ichimoku Kijun line acting as immediate resistance at USX1,303. Support is identified near MA-200 on the daily timeframe at USX1,194, while resistance remains at USX1,303 and USX1,320. Among momentum indicators, the MACD issues a strong sell signal and ADX is neutral, suggesting a lack of trend strength. RSI stands at 53.88 in buy territory, both Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power appear overbought, and CCI also signals a buy, pointing to conflicting momentum and potential caution given current price-action divergence.

Directional bias favors upside if resistance breaks amid contained volatility

In the short term, ZS/USX is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between USX1,277 and USX1,320 over the next 2–3 trading days. There is a 65% probability of an upward move, while a downward shift is estimated at 35%. The baseline scenario envisions price remaining contained within this corridor. Should resistance at USX1,303 be breached, the path toward USX1,320 may open up; on the other hand, a close below support could bring prices toward the lower bound near USX1,277.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that recent buying by Chinese state firms supports U.S. soybean exports, but record-high Chinese crusher inventories and persistent tariffs dampen the bullish outlook. He observes that momentum indicators are mixed, with price stuck below key moving averages and resistance at USX1,303 not yet convincingly broken. Kharitonov sees the base case as rangebound action between USX1,277 and USX1,320 in the short term, with no conviction for strong directional moves. "Until USX1,303 is breached on a close, I remain defensive and see upside as limited for now."

Earlier, analysts noted that Soybean Futures were expected to remain range-bound amid mixed technical signals and ongoing trade uncertainties. The latest developments regarding elevated Chinese inventories and persistent tariffs add headwinds to U.S. exports, reinforcing the prevailing expectation of constrained price action and highlighting resistance at USX1,303 as a key level to watch for potential breakout or reversal.

Source of Data: ZS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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