Silver price outlook: Downside momentum persists as seller pressure dominates

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Silver slides 1.52% to $52.4 today

Highlights

Silver reached an 11-month low during European trading as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve decision and Israeli elections.
The inability to reclaim the $55 resistance level coincided with continued selling pressure and reduced appetite for new long positions.
Silver trades below key moving averages with a projected 2 to 3 day range of $51.98 to $52.82 and a 77% probability of further decline.

Investor caution persists amid Fed uncertainty and technical rejection

Silver marked a fresh 11-month low during the European trading session on Thursday, a move highlighted by FXStreet as evidence of sustained selling pressure and weakening investor sentiment toward the commodity. The continuing failure to reclaim the $55.00 resistance level, as reported by FXStreet, has been shaped by uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, which discouraged new positions on the long side. Further weighing on sentiment, Business Standard noted that the market also tracked key macro events including the imminent US Federal Reserve decision and Israeli elections, which contributed to the overall cautious positioning seen in recent sessions.

Bearish momentum sustained as oscillators diverge near critical resistance

On the H1 timeframe, XAG/USD trades below the MA-20 at $53.26, MA-50 at $53.74, and the long-term MA-200 at $67.16. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $53.4 serves as immediate resistance. MACD is issuing a Sell signal, while ADX is Neutral. RSI reads 37.56 (Sell), and both CCI and Bull/Bear Power are oversold, indicating persistent bearish dynamics. Stoch RSI shows a Strong Buy, signaling some oscillator divergence, while the Awesome Oscillator remains aligned with the prevailing trend. Bull/Bear Power reflects strong dominance by sellers over the intraday session.

Consolidation risk dominates as downside break remains likely

Looking short term, silver is projected to trade between $51.98 and $52.82 over the next 2–3 days. Traders face an estimated 77% probability of continued downside within this corridor, with only a 23% chance of an abrupt upside move. The base case favors ongoing consolidation or a grind lower in line with prevailing momentum. A bullish scenario depends on a break above $53.4 resistance, while a renewed wave of selling is likely if support at $51.98 gives way.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, acknowledges that silver’s break to an 11-month low underscores persistent bearish sentiment and risk aversion in the market. He sees that macro uncertainty, particularly surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision and geopolitical developments, continues to weigh on investor demand. The analyst notes that as long as silver remains under key resistances, downward pressure is likely to persist. "If the $53.4 resistance is cleared on positive macro news, I expect a swift reversal as sentiment could shift quickly to the upside."

Previously it was reported that silver faced persistent downside risk amid unfavorable technical and macroeconomic conditions. The latest analysis reinforces this bearish view and highlights the importance of monitoring the $51.98 support level, as a break below this threshold could trigger further selling pressure in the near term.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.