Toncoin price prediction for 2040: Telegram user growth supports $26 target

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Toncoin price prediction 2040

Highlights

Toncoin trades near $1.347, down 65% from its 2025 peak, with SAR at $1.458 and Supertrend at $1.291 showing consolidation.
2040 forecasts target $26–$36, assuming Telegram converts 20–30% of users to blockchain participants and DeFi TVL recovers.
Price depends on TON Storage and Bitcoin bridge launching in 2026, Russian approval by July 2027, and reversing DeFi TVL collapse.

Technical breakdown and chart analysis

Toncoin is trading around $1.347 after a 65% collapse from its 2025 peak near $4. SAR indicator sits at $1.458 and Supertrend at $1.291, indicating consolidation.

Toncoin price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Price is testing support near $1.291, with resistance at $1.458. The chart reveals a persistent downtrend from early 2026 highs above $2. A breakdown below $1.29 targets $1.2.

Telegram exclusivity and DeFi collapse

TON Foundation expanded its partnership with Telegram in January 2025, making TON the exclusive blockchain for Telegram's mini apps ecosystem. Telegram accepts Toncoin as the only cryptocurrency for non-fiat payments, including Stars, Premium, Ads, and Gateway. Telegram will tokenize digital assets exclusively on TON, including emojis, stickers, and NFTs. Every Web3 interaction inside Telegram flows through TON.

The TON Wallet reached 87 million Americans in mid-2025. Yet DeFi TVL dropped from $760 million in 2024 to $141.6 million in 2025, showing ecosystem stickiness remains unproven. While Telegram's user count grows, blockchain usage is collapsing. Mini-apps attract users with rewards, then users vanish when incentives end.

Institutional money contradicts price action. Telegram secured $1.7 billion through convertible bonds, while Sequoia and Benchmark committed $400 million. Transaction fees rose 52% in August 2025. Coinbase added TON in November 2025.

TON Storage targets Q1 2026 completion. TON Teleport Bridge in mid-2026 enables Bitcoin interoperability. Cocoon lets GPU owners rent computing power for AI tasks and receive TON tokens. TON supports trading tokenized U.S. stocks via Telegram wallets. Russia classified TON as “liquid cryptocurrency” approved for retail investment in January 2026, with regulations taking effect July 1, 2027.

Toncoin's potential outlook toward 2040

By 2040, forecasts target $26–$36 in bullish scenarios. Conservative models see $6.63, implying 4x upside over 14 years. Moderate forecasts suggest $11.33.

The TON Wallet crossed 100 million sign-ups with 35 million active accounts, showing 3.5% penetration of Telegram's user base. For $26 plus prices, that must reach 20–30%.

What investors should expect and monitor

Watch TON Storage (Q1 2026) and Bitcoin bridge (mid-2026) launches. Track DeFi TVL recovery from $141.6 million. Monitor Russian regulatory implementation July 2027. User conversion from 3.5% to 20–30% validates the thesis.

Analyst Viktoras Karapetjanc observed:

“TON at $1.35 with 1 billion Telegram users and $2.1 billion institutional backing clashes with DeFi TVL collapsing 80%. If Telegram converts 20–30% of users, $26 by 2040 is achievable, but 3.5% penetration is concerning.”

As previously discussed, exclusive Telegram integration guarantees position, but actual usage remains the make-or-break metric for 2040 targets.

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