Solana price prediction: Overbought conditions signal risk as SOL remains under pressure

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Solana drops 1.41% to $87.80 today

Highlights

Solana attracted institutional flows with $3.92 million in SOL ETF net inflows and a $17.17 million whale stake, indicating strong capital engagement.
Total value locked in Solana reached $6.92 billion, boosted by new AVAX integration, though broader market selling continues to pressure price action.
SOL trades between $80–$94.50 with technicals signaling overbought near-term conditions but a higher risk of downside continuation in the coming week.

Institutional inflows and whale buying offset by persistent selling pressure

Institutional interest was observed in Solana as spot SOL ETFs reported $3.92 million in net inflows on Thursday and $1.66 million the previous session. During this period, a significant transaction occurred when a Solana whale purchased 200,000 SOL valued at $17.17 million and staked the tokens, while open interest in Solana derivatives increased by over 5% to around $5.46 billion. Solana’s total value locked rose to about $6.92 billion, and the network integrated Avalanche (AVAX) tokens, allowing AVAX trading on Solana dApps, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Overbought signals clash with weak momentum amid narrow trading range

SOL trades at $87.80, sitting above the SMA-20 ($84.93) but below the SMA-50 ($92.34) and far under the SMA-200 ($150.63). This structure signals short-term upward momentum, while medium- and long-term trends remain under seller pressure. The Ichimoku Kijun is at $84.84, serving as immediate support just below the current price. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD (Strong Sell) and ADX (Sell, 29.35) highlight weakening momentum and seller control, while RSI (50.91, Buy) and AO (Buy) support modest upward potential. Both CCI (119.03, Overbought) and Stoch RSI (88.44, Overbought), combined with BBP (7.07, Overbought), indicate overbought conditions and strong recent buyer dominance. The daily session saw a moderate decline of 1.41%, with no opening gap, and the current price near the bottom of today’s range ($87.82 - $88.70); intraday volatility remains low, with persistent pressure following the open. Divergence between oscillators and momentum indicators reflects short-term over-enthusiasm against broader weakness.

Renewed downside favored as multi-timeframe signals point lower

For the coming week, an adjusted expected range is $80.00 – $94.50, based on the current price and recent volatility patterns. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a price increase, with downside moves more likely given all weekly trend indicators (RSI, ADX, MACD, MAs) pointing to continued weakness. Baseline scenario sees SOL consolidating sideways between $80 and $94.50. A bullish breakout above $94.50 could target further recovery, while a drop below $80 would increase risk of accelerated downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Solana shows persistent weakness despite sporadic institutional inflows and short-term technical relief. He sees overbought signals and limited price momentum, with all major trend indicators pointing to ongoing downside risk. Cautious sentiment prevails as the base case for the week remains a sideways consolidation with clear resistance and downside triggers. "I remain defensive on SOL — unless price decisively reclaims $94.50, sellers are in control and further declines stay likely."

Previously it was reported that Solana’s upward momentum was constrained by broader seller control and technical resistance, signaling a tendency toward consolidation rather than breakout. The latest developments—marked by renewed institutional inflows and continued overbought signals amidst prevailing downward pressure—reinforce the outlook for sideways trading, with $80 and $94.50 as key levels to monitor for potential shifts in trend.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.