Ethereum ticks up after Fusaka upgrade leads to lower network fees

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Ethereum gains 0.94% today, trades above $2,100

Highlights

The Ethereum Foundation conducted a 5,000 ETH OTC sale to Bitmine, aiming to strengthen research and ecosystem development.
Ethereum's new mandate emphasizes decentralization, privacy, and user sovereignty while lower fees post-Fusaka upgrade have increased vulnerability to address poisoning attacks, causing $79.3 million in losses since 2022.
ETH trades in a sideways corridor between $1,950 and $2,170, with mixed momentum signals suggesting a higher probability of price decline than increase next week.

Institutional flows shift as foundation sales and protocol risks intensify

The Ethereum Foundation has executed an OTC sale of 5,000 ETH to Bitmine, led by Thomas Lee, to support further protocol research, development, and ecosystem growth. Its newly published mandate underscores priorities such as user self-sovereignty, censorship resistance, privacy, open source, and heightened security, with explicit emphasis on decentralization. Following the Fusaka upgrade, lower network fees have led to a rise in address poisoning attacks, resulting in $79.3 million in losses between 2022 and 2024 as malicious actors exploit cheaper costs for high-frequency dusting. Ongoing discussions around regulatory classification, staking rules, and spot ETF treatment further influence institutional access.

Mixed oscillator signals as overbought conditions temper momentum outlook

Momentum signals for ETH are mixed: ADX (26.67) indicates a trend is intact, while the D1 MACD registers a strong sell, diverging from the bullish tone suggested by short-term signals. The RSI (52.53) and CCI (97.58) suggest mild bullish momentum, whereas Stoch RSI (100.00) and BBP (68.59) highlight overbought conditions and strong buyer dominance for intraday action. The Awesome Oscillator is positive, reinforcing the short-term bullish view. Immediate support aligns with the Ichimoku Kijun at $2,004.52, with resistance at the SMA-50 ($2,155.30) and SMA-200 ($3,248.26); today's session is marked by moderate volatility and strength near intraday highs, though conflicting oscillator readings signal potential for near-term consolidation or quick reversals.

Sideways bias holds as weak upside signals face downside risks

For the coming week, ETH is expected to trade within a $1,950 to $2,170 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a price increase is low (less than 20%), with most weekly signals — including RSI, MACD, and SMA-50 — indicating downward pressure. The base case scenario is for ETH to continue moving sideways as mixed signals balance out. A breakout above $2,170 would open the way for further gains, while a decline below $1,950 would expose new support and confirm downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Ethereum showing technical resilience above key short-term supports, but warns of persistent resistance from higher moving averages. He notes that cautious regulatory sentiment and recent address poisoning attacks weigh on institutional confidence and crypto security. Momentum signals remain mixed, creating uncertainty over the near-term trend. "Base case is for sideways price action between $1,950 and $2,170 this week — as long as ETH stays below SMA-50, caution is warranted."

Previously it was reported that the Ethereum Foundation completed a 5,000 ETH over-the-counter sale to Bitmine as part of its ongoing treasury and ecosystem support strategy. With mixed momentum signals and heightened institutional activity, ETH traders should monitor for a breakout above $2,170 as confirmation of renewed bullish momentum or a drop below $1,950 for emerging downside risk.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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