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CryptoQuant founder says Bitcoin is in a bear phase
According to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s current price behavior indicates that the bull cycle may be over.
In his analysis published on the X platform, Ju emphasizes that although capital is still flowing into the market, it no longer has the same impact on price—an indicator that typically signals the onset of a bearish trend. His assessment is based on the Realized Cap metric, which estimates the total capital actually invested based on blockchain transactions.
Realized cap vs. market capitalization
Unlike traditional Market Cap, which reflects the total value of all coins based on the latest trade price, Realized Cap is calculated based on the average cost basis of funds entering wallets.
Ju warns that Market Cap can be misleading because it reacts not only to capital inflows but also to trading dynamics in exchange order books. When selling pressure is low, even small purchases can push prices significantly higher—just as it happened with MicroStrategy, which saw its asset value soar despite relatively modest investments.
Market behavior under hHeavy selling pressure
The situation shifts dramatically when sell pressure intensifies. In such cases, even large investments fail to move prices. Ju cites the example of Bitcoin’s attempt to break above $100,000—despite massive trading volumes, the price remained flat, signaling overwhelming sell-side activity. At present, Realized Cap continues to grow, indicating fresh capital inflows, but Market Cap remains stagnant—clear signs of imbalance and waning momentum.
Outlook and conclusion: A bearish market ahead
While some critics argue that Realized Cap may not reflect all institutional activity, Ju insists that most large flows—including ETF-related and custodial wallet transactions—are visible on-chain. His conclusion is straightforward: in a bull market, even small inflows can drive prices up, but in a bear market, even significant capital fails to create momentum.
Historically, market reversals under such conditions have taken at least six months, making a short-term rally unlikely. For now, on-chain data supports a cautiously bearish outlook.
At the same time, amid escalating global trade conflicts, analysts and investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a strategic asset in times of economic uncertainty. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that trade wars weaken national currencies and set the stage for inflation—a scenario in which Bitcoin’s limited supply and decentralized nature become particularly attractive.
This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.
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