Bitcoin sinks as strong sell signals on MACD confirm bearish momentum: weekly analysis

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Bitcoin falls 11.63% this week

Highlights

Bitcoin trades below major moving averages, confirming persistent medium-term bearish pressure and seller dominance in the current trend.
Bearish weekly momentum and oversold oscillators point to heightened downside risk, with no major indicators signaling a potential reversal.
Price expected to range between $60,800 and $73,300 over the next week, with a further drop likely if selling persists.

ETF outflows and regulatory shifts drive institutional selling pressure this week

Large outflows from bitcoin spot ETFs, totaling between $2.8 and $3.5 billion, helped trigger heavy forced liquidations in the market. Institutional activity included a rare sale of 32 BTC by Strategy Inc. to fund preferred stock dividends, marking its first sale of Bitcoin since 2022. In parallel, regulatory momentum is building as the U.S. SEC advances new oversight measures and the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act moved forward in the Senate, while a South African court formally recognized Bitcoin as both capital and money under local laws.

Technical momentum turns strongly negative amid sustained weekly downside

Weekly moving averages confirm a bearish structure, with price well below both the MA-20 and MA-50 though still above the long-term MA-200. Key weekly support is established above $61,842.05 (MA-200), and resistance sits at $72,821.70 (MA-20) and $73,300. Momentum signals are notably negative: MACD (Strong Sell), ADX (Sell), and Bull/Bear Power (Oversold, deeply negative). Oscillators reflect a strongly oversold environment: RSI is at 36.30 (Sell), Stochastic RSI is Neutral, and CCI shows a Sell in near-oversold territory. Weekly volatility remains elevated at 12.69%, with price action dominated by sustained downside movement.

Further downside risk expected as oversold conditions limit rebound odds

Over the next 7 days, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate within the $60,800 to $73,300 range as oversold conditions stabilize near support. With all key weekly indicators in negative territory and no Buy signals on W1, there is less than a 20% probability of a strong rebound. A decisive move above $73,300 would be required to trigger a bullish reversal, but current momentum makes further downside more probable. If selling pressure persists and the price falls through $60,800, the next significant support will come into focus, signaling sustained risk for the upcoming days.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, believes the past week’s volatility reflects a recalibrating market still positioned for longer-term opportunity. Heavy ETF outflows and regulatory headlines have intensified downside momentum, yet Bitcoin’s strong hold above the MA-200 at $61,842.05 shows that the macro bullish structure remains firm. While technical signals are now deeply oversold and weekly resistance at $73,300 remains a key threshold, elevated volatility could open the door for tactical accumulation in the current range. Karapetjanc sees this period as a test of resilience for both institutional and retail investors. "With market sentiment shaken but underlying fundamentals intact, I expect Bitcoin to stabilize and offer strategic entry points above $60,800 in the coming week."

Earlier, analysts noted that heightened market uncertainty and ongoing liquidation events were driving persistent selling pressure and weakening sentiment in Bitcoin. The current market structure reinforces this view, and with volatility elevated and regulatory developments accelerating, traders should closely monitor the $61,842 support level for signals of either stabilization or a further breakdown.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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