Ethena price prediction: Can $0.0706–$0.0868 hold as ENA slides 7.90%?

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Ethena slides 7.90% today to $0.0787

Highlights

Janus Henderson invested in ENA tokens and partnered with Ethena, integrating tokenized CLOs into USDe reserves with set limits.
Ethena's protocol continues to see declining total value locked, reflecting reduced user engagement amid broader market pressures.
ENA/USD trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum, facing heightened downside risk and a likely consolidation range of $0.0706 to $0.0868 over the next days.

Institutional adoption grows even as user outflows persist

Janus Henderson, a global asset manager, made a strategic investment in the ENA governance token and established a multi-faceted partnership with Ethena. This included allocating capital into USDe for treasury management purposes and integrating AAA-rated tokenized CLOs into the USDe reserve, with a specific reserve cap set. While these institutional developments have introduced new sources of demand and diversified Ethena’s product reach, the protocol has continued to experience a decline in total value locked, reflecting reduced user engagement and broader market pressures.

Mixed momentum and resistance as technical signals diverge

On the hourly timeframe, ENA/USD trades below the MA-20 at $0.0799, MA-50 at $0.0826, and remains well under the MA-200 at $0.1482. Immediate resistance is noted at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $0.0814. Momentum indicators are mixed: the MACD shows a strong sell signal while the ADX points to a neutral trend. The RSI stands at 43.54 (Sell), with the CCI in oversold territory, but the Stoch RSI indicates overbought conditions. BBP produces a buy signal reflecting some intraday buyer activity, though the Awesome Oscillator aligns with ongoing selling pressure.

Sideways drift likely amid prevailing downside risk

Over the next two to three trading days, ENA/USD is expected to trade between $0.0706 and $0.0868 based on recent volatility. The probability for a downward move is estimated at 73%, versus 27% for a rebound. The baseline forecast is for sideways consolidation within this price band; a bullish scenario would require a breakout above $0.0814 resistance, while a move below $0.0706 would confirm further downside risk.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees a notable gap between recent high-profile institutional investments and the persistent weakness in Ethena’s protocol activity. He believes the Janus Henderson partnership adds credibility and longer-term growth potential, but short-term market sentiment remains negative. Structural adoption is forming, yet downside risk dominates until user engagement improves. "If Ethena can hold its ground and capitalize on these new institutional ties, I expect sentiment to turn positive in the coming quarters."

Earlier, analysts noted that Ethena was experiencing sustained bearish momentum, with institutional participation proving insufficient to reverse prevailing downside pressure. The latest technical mix of oversold signals and intraday volatility reinforces the cautious outlook, making a decisive close above the $0.0814 resistance essential to alter the current trajectory.

Source of Data: ENA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.