Toncoin falls 4.03% as sellers remain in control near $1.618 support

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Toncoin drops 4.03% to $1.62 today

Highlights

Toncoin will rebrand and change its ticker from TON to GRAM after an 81% community governance vote, restoring its original brand identity.
All wallet, staking, NFT, and DeFi functions will operate without interruption during the ticker transition, ensuring continuity for holders and users.
TON/USD faces strong short- and medium-term selling pressure, with a high probability of further decline into the $1.390–$1.703 forecast range.

Brand reversion and consensus boost fail to counter selling pressure

Toncoin will rebrand and transition its ticker from TON to GRAM following a community governance vote that passed with 81% approval, reflecting broad stakeholder consensus for the change. The announcement clarified that balances and decentralized application functions, including wallets, staking, NFTs, and DeFi, will not be altered during this process, maintaining operational continuity. Pavel Durov, founder of Toncoin, confirmed the move restores the original brand identity established in the 2018 TON whitepaper by Telegram. Despite the structural significance of this future action and the assurance of uninterrupted network functionality, price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Short-term weakness emerges as mixed signals and volatility persist

On the daily chart, TON/USD is trading below the MA-20 and MA-50 but stays above the MA-200, illustrating a divide between short-term and long-term technical structures. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $1.618 is identified as immediate support. Among momentum signals, MACD indicates a strong sell, ADX is neutral, and RSI sits at 44 with a mild sell bias. Stoch RSI has entered oversold territory, while CCI and the Awesome Oscillator are both neutral. BBP signals some buyer activity, presenting a mixed technical picture amid high volatility.

Downside risk prevails if support fails amid narrow upside odds

Over the next 2–3 days, the forecast range for TON/USD lies between $1.390 and $1.703, reflecting a volatility band relative to current levels. Scenario probabilities favor a further decline, with a very low likelihood of an upward breakout in the short term. Should TON/USD hold within its present levels, a period of sideways consolidation may ensue; however, a bearish outcome could unfold rapidly if immediate support is violated, while a confirmed resistance break is required to trigger any near-term bullish reversal.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the Toncoin rebrand as a technically and structurally significant decision, but notes it is only effective in 2026 and provides no immediate catalyst for price. He highlights that fundamentals and community support appear strong, yet the token remains under clear selling pressure, reinforced by short-term technical weakness. The analyst is cautious due to the mixed momentum signals and the risk of a rapid bearish move if support fails. "Until TON/USD reclaims decisive moving averages, I remain defensive and expect consolidation or further downside."

Earlier, analysts noted that Toncoin was exhibiting range-bound price action amid persistent volatility and the anticipation of its upcoming rebranding to Gram. The current technical setup continues to show downside risks, making immediate support at $1.618 a pivotal level that could signal further selling or trigger a new consolidation phase.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.