MACD and ADX point to continued downside: Can Aptos weekly outlook recover from more than 9% slide?

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Aptos falls 9.00% this week

Highlights

Aptos maintains a decisively bearish trend, trading well below key moving averages after a 9% weekly drop.
Momentum and volatility indicators reinforce ongoing downside risk, but oversold conditions suggest potential for short-term exhaustion.
Next week, Aptos is expected to range between $0.5184 and $0.6115, with major downside risk if $0.551 support fails.

New transaction record offsets DeFi exit as adoption hurdles intensify

Aptos reached a new milestone in late July 2026, processing 13.2 million transactions in a single day and pushing its total transaction count past 4.51 billion since launch, according to TheStreet citing data from Chainspect. While developer activity remains strong, Aave's decision to wind down its DeFi presence on Aptos has introduced fresh uncertainty around on-chain liquidity. Despite these achievements, DiarioBitcoin noted the project continues to face structural challenges in adoption momentum.

Downside momentum persists as volatility and signals point lower

The daily chart shows a sustained move lower with a firm trend as momentum favors sellers. MACD and ADX both point to continued downside, while RSI is approaching oversold at 38.016, hinting that exhaustion could start to set in. Volatility this week measured 15.97%, reinforcing the conviction behind the recent decline. Key support sits at $0.551, while resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.601, and the broader technical context remains negative.

Bearish bias holds for next week amid support breakdown risk

In the week ahead, Aptos is expected to trade between $0.5184 and $0.6115, with a 21% probability of an increase and 79% chance of a decrease. The base case is for continued pressure as long as price stays below $0.601, with a bearish scenario likely if the $0.551 support fails. A recovery above $0.601 could trigger a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains firmly to the downside.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, observes that persistent weakness defined Aptos this week as price slipped another 9% and moved further below key averages. With sentiment cautious after major DeFi participants reduced on-chain exposure, technical pressure remains pronounced as sellers drive momentum. Key support at $0.551 is now in focus, and volatility continues to reflect conviction for the current downtrend. He believes the base case favors sustained downside unless resistance at $0.601 gives way. "I remain vigilant for a sentiment-driven oversold bounce if $0.601 is reclaimed, but as long as price holds below that level, pressure looks set to persist next week."

Previously it was reported that Aave decided to discontinue its DeFi operations on Aptos, signaling a shift in on-chain liquidity dynamics for the network. With institutional flows and adoption trends now in sharper focus, ongoing challenges around ecosystem support reinforce the importance of monitoring Aptos's ability to hold above the $0.551 key support level in the days ahead.

Source of Data: APT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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