Bitcoin is holding near $63,700 after recovering from the $62,200–62,500 area, although buyers have struggled to extend the rebound beyond $64,500–65,000. The four-hour chart confirms a consolidation phase, with price oscillating around the short and long-term moving averages.
Repeated failures above $65,000 and the lower high formed near $66,700 indicate that the broader corrective structure remains intact.
ETF inflows cushion downside
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a net $170.1 million on August 3, reversing the previous session’s outflow. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for approximately $111.4 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC received around $33.4 million. These inflows are helping stabilize Bitcoin above $63,000, although a single positive session is insufficient to establish a durable institutional accumulation trend. US spot Bitcoin ETF flows
Strategy sale weighs on sentiment
Strategy disclosed the sale of 1,638 BTC for approximately $104.7 million, using the proceeds to support preferred-stock dividends and share repurchases. The company still holds 842,138 BTC, but the transaction weakens the perception that its Bitcoin position will only expand. Separate reports of an $89 million theft linked to a vulnerability affecting older Coldcard hardware wallets have also increased security concerns across the market.
Fed policy and Middle East remain key risks
The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates at 3.50–3.75% has left financial conditions restrictive, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 4.7%. July’s ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.6, reinforcing expectations that the Fed can maintain higher rates despite June CPI easing to 3.5%. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz continues to influence risk appetite. A diplomatic agreement could reduce energy-driven inflation concerns, while renewed escalation would favor the dollar and increase pressure on cryptocurrencies.
$60,000 risk remains unresolved
Bitcoin needs to break above $64,500–65,000 to strengthen momentum and open the way toward $66,000–66,700. Until that happens, the current consolidation may become a continuation pattern within the broader decline. A break below $63,000 would expose $62,200–62,000, followed by $61,000 and the psychologically important $60,000 level. As I noted in the article Bitcoin extends decline as macro headwinds and security concerns weigh on sentiment, only sustained acceptance above $66,700 would materially weaken the bearish scenario.
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