Deribit options expiry puts bitcoin trading range in focus

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Deribit options expiry and bitcoin range

Highlights

Approximately $15.9 billion in bitcoin options and $2.1 billion in ether options expire on Friday, representing 37% of Deribit's BTC open interest.
The put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.69 and heavy call positioning at $70,000, $85,000, $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 reflect strong bullish sentiment ahead of expiry.
Dealer hedging flows supporting bitcoin's rally above $80,000 may diminish after expiry, potentially increasing short-term volatility and resetting the trading range.

Quarterly expiry concentrates risk around key bitcoin strikes

As reported by CoinDesk, roughly $15.9 billion in bitcoin options and $2.1 billion in ether options expire at 8:00 UTC on Friday, according to Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers. He says the bitcoin leg alone accounts for 37% of Deribit's outstanding BTC open interest, which stands at about $43.5 billion, making the Sept. 25 settlement one of the exchange's largest this year.

Strijers says the September contract remains tilted toward calls, with a put-to-call open-interest ratio of 0.69, indicating positioning for higher prices. More than half of the $9.4 billion in bitcoin call notional due to expire is in the money, while puts are largely underwater, leaving about a third of the full $15.9 billion bitcoin book currently in profit.

Deribit places bitcoin's maximum pain level at $75,000, well below the current spot price near $85,500, and describes that point as a soft magnet into expiry. Open interest is heaviest at the $70,000 strike, where calls are now deep in the money, while Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot says call positioning is also concentrated at $85,000, $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000.

Hedging flows may fade after settlement

Strijers says bitcoin's rally through the $80,000 to $87,000 range may have been reinforced by dealer hedging of short call exposure. As prices rise, dealers short calls often buy spot bitcoin to remain hedged, a dynamic that can add momentum to an upward move.

He says that support may weaken once the expiry passes and the related gamma exposure rolls off after settlement. If that happens, the market's pinning effect could fade, short-term volatility could increase, and bitcoin's prevailing trading range could reset.

Péquignot says put positioning around $60,000, $70,000 and $75,000 creates a layered support floor for the market. Traders are also watching how positions roll over into October and December expiries, which could help shape the next phase of activity in the crypto derivatives market.

Our earlier article on the NSE’s warning about alleged illegal “dabba” trading services explained how such offerings were being promoted via a YouTube channel and an entity claiming market access. It highlighted that the exchange said the individuals involved were not authorized representatives of any NSE-registered member and noted that investors can use the “Know/Locate your Stock Broker” tool to verify legitimate intermediaries. The piece also underscored the potential legal penalties under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956, and the lack of exchange-backed grievance or dispute resolution protections for transactions done through prohibited platforms.

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