Why is Plasma falling today? Token unlock news and selloff pressures

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Plasma drops 8.34% today to $0.0878

Highlights

Plasma will unlock 1.76 billion XPL tokens, equal to 63% of total supply, on September 25, 2026.
The size and timing of the upcoming unlock have increased dilution risk and contributed to cautious trading behavior.
XPL/USD trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum signals and is projected to remain between $0.0829 and $0.095, with further downside likely.

Dilution risks grow as traders brace for upcoming token unlock

Plasma is set to unlock 1.76 billion XPL tokens, about 63% of the total supply, on September 25, 2026, according to Techbullion. This upcoming event raises the prospect of significantly increased circulating supply, prompting traders to anticipate elevated dilution risk and potential future selling pressure. The scale and timing of the unlock have weighed on market sentiment and contributed to cautious positioning.

Bearish momentum as technical barriers cap price action

On the hourly chart, XPL is trading below the MA-20 at $0.0892 and the MA-50 at $0.0926, with the long-term MA-200 overhead at $0.0932. The Ichimoku Kijun indicator stands at $0.0904 and provides immediate resistance. Momentum tools confirm a bearish technical outlook: MACD signals a strong sell and ADX also indicates selling conditions. The RSI is at 38, supporting a continued downside bias, while Stoch RSI is in oversold territory and CCI signals further negative momentum. Bull/Bear Power readings show sellers dominating the short-term action. Price action remains near the session's low, with the Awesome Oscillator supporting recent weakness and no divergence emerging across major oscillators.

Further declines likely unless resistance breach sparks rebound

For the next 2 6 trading days, XPL/USD is likely to fluctuate between $0.0829 and $0.095, with high volatility expected. The probability of a continued decline is high, and a rebound scenario is less likely unless the price decisively breaks above the $0.0904 resistance level. If immediate support is breached, prices could continue to drift lower within the projected volatility band.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees sentiment and fundamentals both tilted to the downside for Plasma, given the looming supply event and weak technicals. The upcoming token unlock weighs heavily on future expectations, and recent price action reflects this caution. However, he believes that a decisive move above key resistance could spark renewed interest. In his view, the major unlock remains the critical overhang for now. "If the market can absorb supply shocks and reclaim lost technical ground, there is room for optimism in the longer term."

Earlier, analysts noted that Plasma remained under persistent downside pressure due to large upcoming token unlocks and sustained technical weakness. The latest price action and momentum data reinforce the negative outlook, with the next major move likely to hinge on whether immediate support can hold amid elevated volatility.

Source of Data: XPL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.