Why is Bitcoin flat today? SEC ETF decisions and resistance levels in focus

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Bitcoin rises 0.3% to $84,912 today

Highlights

The SEC approved a Cboe BZX rule change to permit listing six new 3x leveraged ETFs, including a 3x Bitcoin ETF, paving the way for greater institutional and retail involvement in high-leverage bitcoin products.
Supplementary approvals for 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ether futures ETFs and new SEC proposals for direct digital asset custody signal a shifting regulatory stance toward crypto instruments.
BTC/USD trades near its daily high at $84,912 with mixed momentum signals and an expected short-term range from $83,292 to $85,953, favoring consolidation but with a 60% probability of an upward move.

Leveraged ETF approvals boost speculative interest amid regulatory shift

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of a Cboe BZX rule change enabling the listing of six new 3x leveraged exchange-traded products, including a 3x Bitcoin ETF, lays regulatory groundwork for expanded institutional and retail access to high-leverage bitcoin instruments, according to Coinpedia. Although actual trading cannot begin until the S-1 registration is effective, this development primes the market for potential surges in both liquidity and speculative interest. Supplementary approvals for additional 3x Bitcoin and Ether futures ETFs, as highlighted by Coinedition and Thecoinrepublic, further illustrate the SEC's evolving stance on leveraged crypto products. In parallel, new SEC proposals to allow direct custody of digital assets may reshape compliance pathways for investment advisers and funds, as reported by Finance Yahoo.

Mixed momentum signals reinforce range as technical divergence persists

On the h1 chart, BTC is trading above its MA-20 but remains below the MA-50, while it holds firmly above the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. Immediate support is established at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $84,780. Momentum indicators are mixed: MACD signals a strong sell, ADX is neutral, and both RSI and Stochastic RSI show selling pressure without reaching oversold territory. CCI holds neutral, Bull/Bear Power reveals overbought conditions intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator gives a buy signal, highlighting the divergence among technical signals at current levels.

Sideways movement expected as consolidation favors mild upside

In the short term, BTC is expected to fluctuate within a range of $83,292 to $85,953. Probability currently favors sideways movement with a tilt toward the upside, estimated at 60% for further gains and 40% for retracement. The most likely scenario is continued consolidation within this corridor, while a break above resistance could trigger additional upside, and a drop below immediate support may lead to renewed selling pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes SEC regulatory progress is a pivotal driver for Bitcoin’s evolving market structure. He sees expanding ETF options and potential custody rule changes as key signals for increased institutional engagement. Trading conditions remain mixed in the very short term, but macro sentiment points upward with consolidation above critical support. Optimism is reinforced by the growing appetite for leveraged products and enhanced market accessibility. "If market structure remains constructive and regulatory clarity expands, I expect fresh capital to drive a breakout beyond the current range."

Previously it was reported that the SEC approved a Cboe BZX rule change to allow the listing of six new triple-leveraged exchange-traded products, including a 3x Bitcoin ETF. The current chart structure and mixed technical signals suggest that traders should closely monitor the $84,780 support level, as a decisive move below this threshold could shift the near-term bias to the downside.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.