Pendle technical analysis: Support pressure at $2.19 in focus

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Pendle drops 7.6% today to $2.25

Highlights

Aave is preparing to replace 67.4 million PT-AUSD collateral maturing on October 8, introducing major shifts to Pendle-related collateral flows and affecting PENDLE demand and liquidity.
A proposal for LlamaRisk agents to adjust Pendle collateral parameters on the Plasma network brings uncertainty to risk management and could alter DeFi platform participation tied to Pendle.
PENDLE trades below key moving averages with strong selling signals from all major momentum indicators, and price is likely to consolidate between $2.1856 and $2.3144 with further declines more probable.

Liquidity risk rises as aave collateral shift drives selloff

Aave's preparations to replace 67.4 million PT-AUSD collateral maturing on October 8 represent a major adjustment to Pendle-related collateral flows, which can impact short-term liquidity and demand for PENDLE, according to Diariobitcoin. This development may have raised uncertainty around collateral availability and potential cascading effects across DeFi platforms tied to Pendle. Additionally, a proposal for LlamaRisk agents to adjust Pendle collateral parameters on the Plasma network signals the possibility of changes in risk management, which could further influence market participation. These shifts coincide with heightened selling pressure on Pendle.

Bearish momentum deepens as oscillators confirm oversold conditions

On the H1 chart, PENDLE trades below both the MA-20 at $2.37 and MA-50 at $2.42, but remains above the longer-term MA-200 at $1.60. The Ichimoku Kijun at $2.35 stands as immediate resistance, while support is seen at $2.19. Bearish momentum is confirmed by the MACD and ADX, with the intraday RSI at 17.73, Stochastic RSI, and CCI all in oversold territory. Bull/Bear Power reflects seller dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator aligns with the current downtrend. No bullish divergence is observed among these indicators.

Downside risk dominates as price consolidates near support

Over the next two to three trading days, Pendle is expected to consolidate between $2.19 and $2.31, with volatility likely to persist within this range. The probability of a further decline is very high, while the probability of an upward move is considered very low. Should price break below $2.19, a bearish scenario could quickly develop, while any recovery requires a decisive move above $2.35 resistance. For now, price action is likely to remain confined to a typical volatility band relative to current levels.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Pendle remains under significant technical and fundamental pressure. He sees the upcoming replacement of 67.4 million PT-AUSD collateral on Aave and proposed risk adjustments as creating uncertainty and weakening sentiment. The analyst highlights that key indicators point to sustained bearish momentum with downside risk dominating the outlook. "As long as PENDLE trades below resistance at $2.35, I expect sellers to stay in control and see little reason to position for a rebound."

Earlier, analysts noted that Pendle was demonstrating technical resilience amid growing user engagement and capital inflows tied to its real-world asset initiatives. The current retracement, coupled with structural changes in collateral flows, signals a shift in market dynamics, making the $2.19 support level critical for traders monitoring potential downside risk in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: PENDLE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.